Construction of a prognostic model for intracranial aneurysm rupture with hematoma clipping surgery
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2024.21.005
- VernacularTitle:颅内动脉瘤破裂伴血肿夹闭术预后模型构建
- Author:
Xiaohong GUO
1
;
Junkang FANG
;
Zhenyan LU
;
Yi WU
;
Pengchao HONG
;
Xiaokang FANG
Author Information
1. 东阳市人民医院神经外科,浙江东阳 322100
- Keywords:
Intracranial aneurysm rupture;
Hematoma;
Craniotomy clipping;
Prognosis;
Model building
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2024;62(21):21-25
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors of poor prognosis after clipping in patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysm and hematoma,and to construct a clinical prediction model.Methods A total of 151 patients with aneurysmal intracranial hematoma in Dongyang People's Hospital were selected from September 2017 to October 2023.3 months after operation,the patients were grouped by modified Rankin scale(mRS),with 93 cases in good prognosis group and 58 cases in poor prognosis group.Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to explore the risk factors affecting the poor prognosis of patients with postoperative prognosis,and a poor prognostic prediction model for patients with intracranial aneurysm rupture and hematoma clamping was constructed,the discriminant validity of the area under the curve(AUC)was evaluated,and the fit of the model was established using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Results The Hunt-Hess gradeⅣ-Ⅴ(OR=5.339),modified Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ(OR=5.145),hematoma volume≥ 50ml(OR=7.426),hematoma clearance rate was≤50％(OR=8.381),size of the responsible aneurysm＞5mm(OR=3.053),operation time window＞5h(OR=2.659),and intraoperative vascular operation time＞3h(OR=2.305)were independent risk factors for poor prognosis after clipping in patients with intracranial aneurysm ruptured and intracranial hematoma(P＜0.05).The AUC of the poor prognosis prediction model of patients with intracranial aneurysm rupture with hematoma after clipping was 0.863(95％CI:0.781-0.946,P＜0.001),the specificity was 79.6％,the sensitivity was 86.2％,and the prediction accuracy was 82.1％.Hosmer-Lemeshow testx2=5.778,P=0.679,and there was no significant difference between the predicted value of the model and the actual observed value.Conclusion Hunt-Hess grade Ⅳ-Ⅴ,the modified Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ,hematoma volume≥50ml,hematoma clearance rate≤50％,responsible aneurysm size＞5mm,operation time window＞5h,and intraoperative vascular operation time＞3h were independent risk factors for poor prognosis after clipping in patients with intracranial aneurysm ruptured.The model constructed in this study has high predictive performance and can provide guidance for the treatment and postoperative recovery of patients undergoing craniotomy and clipping surgery in clinical practice.
