An evidence-based predictive model for early recurrence risk after hepatocellular carcinoma surgery and external validation study
10.3760/cma.j.cn115355-20240417-00186
- VernacularTitle:肝细胞癌术后早期复发风险的循证预测模型及外部验证研究
- Author:
Wenkao ZHOU
1
;
Fangli ZHAO
;
Jiajia CHEN
;
Lei CHEN
;
Lingyan HUANG
;
Yue WANG
;
Huimin TANG
Author Information
1. 辽宁省肿瘤医院普通外科，沈阳 110000
- Keywords:
Carcinoma, hepatocellular;
Recurrence;
Meta-analysis;
Predictive model;
External validation
- From:
Cancer Research and Clinic
2024;36(11):835-842
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct an evidence-based prediction model for early recurrence after surgery of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on Meta-analysis and to do external validation study.Methods:The literatures in Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, VIP, Chinese Science Citation Database (CSCD), Chinese Social Science Citation System (CCSCI), PubMed, Web of Science and IEEE databases between January 2019 and December 2023 were searched based on the subject words. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 9 literatures were included to screen the risk factors affecting the early recurrence of HCC. When the same risk factor was found in ≥5 included literatures, Meta-analysis was performed by using Review Manager 5.4.1 software. External validation data were collected from 401 patients with primary HCC who underwent surgery in Liaoning Cancer Hospital between March 2014 and March 2017. The patients were divided into early recurrence group (176 cases) and early non-recurrence group (225 cases) according to whether they relapsed 2 years after surgery. The OR values of all risk factors obtained in the Meta-analysis were converted into modeling, and postoperative early recurrence rate of HCC in the Meta-analysis was used to calculate β 0, and finally the logistic model was obtained. The OR value was incorporated into the logit (P) model, and the morbidity (P) of the external validation data was calculated. Taking the recurrence 2 years after surgery or not as the dependent variable and P as the independent variable, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to calculate the area under the curve (AUC). Results:A total of 8 risk factors for early HCC recurrence were screened out from 9 literatures (x 1: alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/ml; x 2: tumor number ≥ 2; x 3: the longest tumor diameter ≥ 5 cm; x 4: Barcelona staging B-C; x 5: microvascular invasion; x 6: moderate to low differentiation; x 7: incomplete capsule; x 8: nonanatomic hepatectomy). The Meta-analysis included 1 757 HCC cases, with 960 postoperative early recurrences and an early recurrence rate of 45.36%, finally the β 0 value was -0.201. The predictive model for 2-year recurrence of HCC was constructed and calculated as logit (P) = -0.201+0.835x 1+0.905x 2+0.783x 3+1.008x 4+0.765x 5+0.831x 6+1.533x 7+0.940x 8. Analysis of variance by external validation data showed that the differences in ascites, alpha-fetoprotein, tumor number, tumor diameter, Barcelona staging, microvascular invasion, tumor differentiation degree, capsule invasion, resection type, and systemic inflammation index were statistically significant between early recurrence group and early non-recurrence group (all P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that AUC of postoperative early recurrence of HCC predicted by the model was 0.718, (95% CI: 0.689-0.753), the optimal cut-off value was 3.11, the Yoden index was 0.288, the sensitivity was 69.32%, and the specificity was 69.56%. Conclusions:The evidence-based prediction model constructed based on Meta-analysis for postoperative early recurrence of HCC has a high predictive value. However, further verification and optimization with big data is still needed.
