Analysis and prediction of disease burden of esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption in China:an age-period-cohort study based on disease burden from 1990 to 2019
10.3781/j.issn.1000-7431.2024.2401-0035
- VernacularTitle:中国归因于饮酒的食管癌疾病负担分析与预测:基于1990-2019年中国疾病负担的年龄-时期-队列研究
- Author:
Sinian CHEN
1
;
Zhi ZENG
;
Jiawen ZHU
;
Yijuan HE
;
Di ZHU
;
Di LU
Author Information
1. 南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,江苏 南京 210023
- Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;
Alcohol consumption;
Mortality rate;
DALYs;
Disease burden
- From:
Tumor
2024;44(2):158-168
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:Based on the data compilation and analysis of the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption in China over the past three decades(1990-2019),this study aims to explore how to strengthen the formulation and management of public health policies to control the disease burden caused by this disease. Methods:Based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2019 study database,indicators such as mortality rate and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were used to assess the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption in China.Joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort model were employed to analyze the trends in disease burden and mortality rates over time by age,period,and cohort.Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the mortality rates of esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption in China from 2020 to 2030. Results:From 1990 to 2019,the number of deaths from esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption increased from 33 800 cases to 61 900 cases,while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.95 per 100 000 to 3.04 per 100 000.DALYs increased from 934 000 person-years to 1 512 600 person-years,and the DALYs rate decreased from 101.36 per 100 000 to 71.39 per 100 000.In 2019,both the number of deaths and DALYs reached their peak in the age group of 65-69 years with 58 800 deaths and a standardized mortality rate of 6.21 per 100 000 for males,and 3 100 deaths and a standardized mortality rate of 0.31 per 100 000 for females.Both the mortality rates and the DALYs rates increased with age.The Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the average annual percentage change(AAPC)of mortality rates attributed to alcohol consumption-related esophageal cancer was-0.97%[95%confidence interval(CI):-1.2%--0.8%],with an AAPC of-2.32%(95%CI:-2.6%--2.1%)for females and-0.81%(95%CI:-1.0%-0.6%)for males.The age-period-cohort analysis of mortality rates attributed to alcohol consumption-related esophageal cancer showed a net drift of-1.301%(95%CI:-1.577%--1.025%,P＜0.05).It is predicted that the burden of esophageal cancer mortality attributed to alcohol consumption will steadily increase during the period of 2020-2030. Conclusion:Compared to the overall trend of esophageal cancer burden,the burden of esophageal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption is declining at a slower rate.The burden of the disease is higher in the male population than that in females,and higher in the middle-aged and elderly population compared to the younger population.It is expected that in the coming years,the burden of esophageal cancer mortality attributed to alcohol consumption in China will steadily increase,suggesting that while focusing on the intervention for males and the middle-aged and elderly population,relevant departments should also strengthen health education in the entire population,formulate public health policies,and raise awareness of early prevention and risk factors of esophageal cancer among residents.
