Predicting aspiration pneumonia among stroke survivors with dysphagia
10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-1424.2024.07.007
- VernacularTitle:脑卒中后吞咽障碍患者吸入性肺炎的影响因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Tianmeng WANG
1
;
Hongji ZENG
;
Caixia LI
;
Hongyan WANG
;
Xudong YANG
;
Jinju WANG
;
Xi ZENG
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第一附属医院康复医学科，郑州 450000
- Keywords:
Stroke;
Dysphagia;
Aspiration pneumonia;
Risk factors;
Prediction models
- From:
Chinese Journal of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
2024;46(7):618-623
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for aspiration pneumonia (AP) among stroke survivors with dysphagia and construct a prediction model.Methods:The records of one hundred and forty-eight stroke survivors with dysphagia admitted since 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into an AP group ( n=46) and a non-AP group ( n=102). Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were evaluated seeking independent risk factors for AP. the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze predictive power. Results:The incidence of AP was 31%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, Barthel index, Kubota′s water drinking test grading, nutritional support methods and the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) could be useful independent predictors of AP. The areas under the ROC curves suggested that Kubota grading, nutritional support methods, the NLR and the Barthel index could be used to prepare a prediction nomogram with good sensitivity and specificity.Conclusions:Age, Barthel index, Kubota water drinking test grades, nutritional support methods and NLR are independent predictors of AP for stroke survivors with dysphagia. Combining them in a nomogram gives better predictive power than using the factors alone.
