Establishment and validation of a risk-scoring model for predicting delayed onset of lactogenesis stage Ⅱ in preterm mothers during maternal separation
10.3760/cma.j.cn113903-20230821-00137
- VernacularTitle:母婴分离早产儿母亲泌乳Ⅱ期启动延迟风险预测评分模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Fei SUN
1
;
Min LIU
;
Shanshan HU
;
Huijuan CHEN
;
Jie HUA
;
Hui YAN
;
Lingyan WU
Author Information
1. 江南大学无锡医学院，无锡 214122
- Keywords:
Breastfeeding;
Lactation;
Risk factors;
Risk assessment;
Prognosis;
Infant, premature
- From:
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine
2024;27(7):544-552
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct and validate a risk-scoring model for predicting delayed onset of lactogenesis stage Ⅱ (DOL Ⅱ) in mothers separated from their premature infants.Methods:This was a retrospective study. (1) Modeling group: This group enrolled 310 mothers who were separated from their premature infants after delivery at Wuxi Maternal and Child Health Hospital from December 2021 to November 2022. They were further divided into the DOL Ⅱ group (144 cases) and the non-DOL Ⅱgroup (166 cases) according to whether they had DOL Ⅱ or not. Based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, each risk factor was assigned a score, and a risk prediction scoring model was established. (2) Validation group: This group included 130 mothers of premature infants who experienced mother-infant separation after delivery at Wuxi Maternal and Child Health Hospital from December 2022 to March 2023. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the discrimination, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the goodness of fit. The Chi-square test (or Fisher's exact probability test) or Wilcoxon rank sum test were used for inter-group data comparison. Results:This risk prediction scoring model included 10 risk factors [maternal age≥35 years old, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, anemia, gestational diabetes mellitus, preterm rupture of membrane, start breastfeeding >6 hours, postpartum admission of maternal intensive care unit, cesarean section, score of Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale >9.5, postpartum neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥4.369, Fatigue Scale-14 ≥7.5, body mass index in the first trimester ≥23.719 kg/m 2, postpartum BMI≥27.661 kg/m 2,and increase of BMI during pregnancy ≥5.393 kg/m 2], with an area under the ROC curve of 0.838 (95% CI: 0.795-0.882, P<0.001), a maximum Yoden index of 0.526, a specificity of 0.825, a sensitivity of 0.701, and an optimal threshold of 4.5. After rounding the score off to the nearest whole number, those with a score≥5 were defined as at high risk of DOL Ⅱ, while those with a score<5 were at low risk. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=3.43 and P=0.634. The positive predictive value, the negative predictive value, and the accuracy were 77.7%, 76.1%, and 76.8%, respectively. In the modeling group, 130 out of the 310 cases (41.9%) were predicted to be at high risk by the model with 101 (32.6%) experiencing DOL Ⅱ, while 180 cases (58.1%) were predicted to be at low risk with 43 (13.9%) experiencing DOL Ⅱ. Among the 130 cases in the validation group, 59 (45.4%) were predicted to be at high risk with 39 (30.0%) experiencing DOL Ⅱ, while 71 (54.6%) were predicted to be at low risk with 19 (14.6%) experiencing DOL Ⅱ. The model validation results showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.693-0.855, P<0.001) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=3.09 and P=0.687, with the positive predictive value of 66.1%, the negative predictive value of 73.2%, and the accuracy of 70.0%. Conclusions:This study preliminarily establishes a risk scoring model for predicting DOL Ⅱ in mothers separated from their premature infants which is of certain predictive value and can provide a reference for developing predictive lactation support measures.
