Establishment of a nomogram prediction model for early mortality risk in extremely preterm infants
10.3760/cma.j.cn113903-20230828-00163
- VernacularTitle:超早产儿早期死亡风险列线图预测模型的建立
- Author:
Jing XU
1
;
Rui ZHANG
;
Huabin WANG
;
Ru YANG
;
Chengshuai LI
;
Jingjing HAN
;
Xiaohui KONG
;
Xueyun REN
Author Information
1. 济宁医学院附属医院新生儿科（山东省医药卫生儿科内科学重点学科，济宁市儿童重症感染防治重点实验室），济宁 272000
- Keywords:
Extremely preterm infants;
Mortality;
Risk factors;
Prediction model;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Perinatal Medicine
2024;27(5):394-401
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To identify the risk factors and to construct a predictive model for early postnatal mortality (with the first 7 days of life) in extremely preterm infants.Methods:This retrospective study involved 244 extremely preterm infants with a gestational age of 22 to 27 weeks and 6 days, born at the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical College from January 2017 to December 2022. They were divided into an early survival group ( n=140) and an early mortality group ( n=84), based on survival for ≥7 days after birth. LASSO and logistic regression were used to select risk factors for early mortality. A nomogram predictive model was constructed using the R software program. The goodness-of-fit tests, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curves were used to evaluate its performance and clinical usefulness. Results:LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that breech delivery ( OR=3.055, 95% CI: 1.125-8.296), intubation in the delivery room ( OR=4.320, 95% CI: 1.328-14.053), diagnosis of grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ neonatal respiratory distress syndrome within 6 h after birth ( OR=11.552, 95% CI: 3.056-43.677), and use of adrenaline in the delivery room ( OR=10.706, 95% CI: 1.454-78.816) were risk factors for early mortality in extremely preterm infants. Conversely, large gestation age ( OR=0.234, 95% CI: 0.125-0.436), antenatal administration of corticosteroids to promote fetal lung maturity ( OR=0.046, 95% CI: 0.014-0.145), and the use of pulmonary surfactant within 6 h after birth ( OR=0.021, 95% CI: 0.004-0.122) were protective factors against mortality. The goodness of fit test of the early death risk nomogram prediction model for extremely preterm infants indicates a good fit ( P=0.702). The AUC of the model was 0.963 (95% CI: 0.943-0.983), with a sensitivity of 0.904 (95% CI: 0.806-0.949), specificity of 0.892 (95% CI: 0.829-0.938), and accuracy of 0.880. Decision curve analysis indicated that a threshold probability>2% would yield a net benefit. Conclusions:Breech delivery, intubation in the delivery room, use of adrenaline in the delivery room, and the diagnosis of grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ neonatal respiratory distress syndrome within 6 h post-birth are independent risk factors for early mortality in extremely preterm infants. Large gestational age, antenatal administration of corticosteroids to promote fetal lung maturity and use of pulmonary surfactant within 6 h after birth are protective factors. The constructed prediction model based on the aforementioned factors can quantitatively, conveniently, and intuitively assess the risk of early mortality in extremely preterm infants.
