A nomogram risk prediction model for symptomatic cerebrovascular ischaemia based on carotid intra-plaque neovascularisation
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2024.11.013
- VernacularTitle:基于颈动脉斑块内新生血管构建列线图评估症状性缺血性脑血管病发病风险
- Author:
Wenyuan MA
1
;
Qi XU
;
Yamei MA
;
Yinghui CHEN
Author Information
1. 430030 武汉市第四医院超声科
- Keywords:
brain ischemic;
carotid artery diseases;
nomograms;
neovascularisation
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases
2024;26(11):1310-1314
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a nomogram risk prediction model for symptomatic cerebrovas-cular ischaemia based on intra-plaque neovascularisation in carotid arteries in patients with ische-mic cerebrovascular disease(ICVD).Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 320 ICVD patients who were consecutively admitted to Wuhan Fourth Hospital from April 2020 to April 2024.In a ratio of 3∶1,240 cases were assigned into a training set and 80 cases into a validation set.The patients in the training set were further divided into 147 cases in the symptomatic sub-group and 93 cases in the asymptomatic subgroup according to the presence or absence of relevant symptoms or signs.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for symptomatic ischemia in ICVD patients,and a nomogram risk prediction model was construc-ted and the prediction efficacy of the model was evaluated.Results The proportions of plaque multiplicity,ulcerated plaque,stenosis ≥70％,and intra-plaque neovascularization were signifi-cantly higher in the symptomatic subgroup than the asymptomatic subgroup(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that plaque multiplicity(OR=1.261,95％CI:1.088-1.539,P=0.003),ulcerated plaque(OR=1.458,95％CI:1.132-1.661,P=0.001),and stenosis ≥70％(OR=2.023,95％CI:1.458-2.561,P=0.001),and intra-plaque neovasculariza-tion(OR=1.206,95％CI:1.057-1.489,P=0.002)were independent risk factors for the occur-rence of symptomatic cerebral ischemia in ICVD patients.H-L deviation test showed that the con-structed nomogram risk prediction model had a good fit(x2=9.362,P=0.295).Internal and ex-ternal validation showed that the calibration curves for both the training and validation sets were consistent with the original curves,and the AUC value was were 0.871 and 0.864,respectively.De-cision curve analysis showed that the model had a significant standardized clinical net benefit when the predicted risk threshold exceeded 0.01.Conclusion Ultrasonography is instructive in as-sessment of the presence or absence of intra-plaque neovascularization in carotid atherosclerotic plaques.And our constructed nomogram risk prediction model has good predictive value for the development of symptomatic cerebral ischemia.
