Predictive value of C2 HEST score for progression of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in elderly patients
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2024.10.003
- VernacularTitle:C2HEST评分在老年患者阵发性心房颤动进展中的预测作用
- Author:
Yue ZHANG
1
;
Xiaoning ZHAO
;
Hongwei ZHAO
;
Xia HUO
;
Haijun WANG
Author Information
1. 100853 北京,解放军总医院第二医学中心心血管内科
- Keywords:
atrial fibrillation;
C2 HEST score;
cohort studies;
forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases
2024;26(10):1130-1133
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To evaluate the predictive performance of C2 HEST score in the progression from paroxysmal to persistent atrial fibrillation(AF)in elderly patients.Methods A retrospective cohort trial was conducted on 515 patients＞75 years old with paroxysmal AF admitted to the First and Second Centers of Chinese PLA General Hospital from January 2008 to December 2009.The occurrence of persistent AF(including permanent AF)or death was regarded as the end event.According to their C2 HSET score,the end population was divided into a progressive group(76 cases,progression to persistent AF)and a non-progressive group(439 cases,not progression to persistent AF).The risk factors for persistent AF were analyzed,and the survival rate was ana-lyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival curve.ROC curve was plotted to evaluate the performance of C2 HEST score in predicting the progression to persistent AF.Results Multivariate Cox regres-sion analysis showed that COPD(HR=2.018,95％CI:1.262-3.227,P=0.003),heart failure(HR=3.505,95％CI:1.5 9 8-7.688,P=0.002)and stroke or transient ischemic attack(HR=3.663,95％CI:2.293-5.852,P=0.000)were independent risk factors for progression to persis-tent AF.Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis indicated that the survival rate was decreased with the increment of risk stratification(P＜0.01).The median survival time of intermediate-risk patients was 124.81 months(95％CI:120.752-128.862)and that of high-risk patients was 97.04 months(95％CI:86.277-107.808).ROC curve analysis revealed that C2 HEST score(AUC value=0.649,95％CI:0.577-0.721,P＜0.01)had good predictive value in the progression of paroxysmal AF to persistent AF.Conclusion In patients over 75 years of age,C2 HEST score has a good performance in evaluating the progression from paroxysmal to persistent AF.
