Construction and verification of a risk prediction model for postoperative malnutrition in infants with congenital heart disease
10.3761/j.issn.0254-1769.2024.19.013
- VernacularTitle:先天性心脏病术后患儿营养不良风险预测模型的构建及验证研究
- Author:
Lin HAN
1
;
Minmin LI
;
Yuxin LI
;
Liuyi LU
;
Qi ZHANG
;
Xueting WANG
;
Ping JU
;
Lijuan YANG
Author Information
1. 250021 济南市山东第一医科大学附属省立医院护理部
- Keywords:
Congenital Heart Disease;
Malnutrition;
Risk Prediction Model;
Pediatric Nursing
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nursing
2024;59(19):2396-2403
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To develop a risk prediction model for postoperative malnutrition in children with congenital heart disease(CHD)and to verify it both internally and externally.Methods By a convenience sampling method,300 CHD children treated at a tertiary hospital in Shandong Province from January 2018 to December 2021 were selected as a modeling group,and 129 children from January 2022 to June 2023 were selected as a validation group.Data on patient demographics,disease-specific variables,therapeutic interventions,and nursing care parameters were collected.Single factor and logistic regression were employed to construct a risk prediction model for postoperative malnutrition in CHD children,and the nomogram was drawn and its prediction effect was evaluated.Results The incidence of postoperative malnutrition among CHD children was 33.10％.Logistic regression analysis revealed that risk factors for malnutrition in children included birth weight＜2.5 kg,preoperative malnutrition,negative fluid balance 1 week after surgery,and long duration of cardiopulmonary bypass(P＜0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling group was 0.933;the sensitivity was 83.30％;the specificity was 90.90％.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that x2=7.765(P=0.457).The AUC of the validation group was 0.918;the sensitivity was 87.20％;the specificity was 90.00％.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that x2=4.947(P=0.763).Calibration curves for both groups indicated good calibration of the model,and the clinical decision curves demonstrated its practical clinical utility.Conclusion The risk prediction model developed in this study exhibits good predictive ability,which can provide a reference for medical staff to early identify high-risk infants for postoperative malnutrition following CHD surgery and to formulate targeted intervention measures.
