A nomogram to predict the risk of postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma based on preoperative clinical indicators and ultrasound features
10.3760/cma.j.cn113884-20240418-00110
- VernacularTitle:基于术前临床及超声特征的预测肝细胞癌切除术后复发的列线图模型构建
- Author:
Yadan XU
1
;
Feihang WANG
;
Kailing CHEN
;
Yang TANG
;
Qi ZHANG
;
Wenping WANG
;
Wentao KONG
;
Zhengbiao JI
;
Xiaolong ZHANG
Author Information
1. 复旦大学附属中山医院超声科，上海 200032
- Keywords:
Carcinoma, hepatocellular;
Ultrasound;
Nomogram;
Recurrence
- From:
Chinese Journal of Hepatobiliary Surgery
2024;30(8):566-571
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish a nomogram prediction model for recurrence within 2 years after radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on clinical and ultrasonographic characteristics.Methods:Clinical data from 405 HCC patients (including 327 males and 78 females), aged 60 (53, 66) years old, who underwent radical hepatectomy in the Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, from January to December 2021, were retrospectively collected. The patients were divided into two groups: the training group ( n=283) and the validation group ( n=122). Based on recurrence within 2 years after surgery, the 283 patients in the training group were further categorized into the recurrence group ( n=73) and the non-recurrence group ( n=210). Among the 122 patients in the validation group, 33 had recurrence within 2 years, while 89 did not. Data on age, microvascular invasion, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP lentil lectin-reactive fraction (AFP-L3), protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), tumor number, and enhancement homogeneity were collected. Logistic regression analysis was performed on the training group to identify risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence, and a nomogram model for predicting HCC recurrence was constructed based on these factors. Calibration curves were used to compare the consistency between predicted and actual outcomes in both the training and validation groups. Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that younger age ( OR=0.976, 95% CI: 0.953-1.000, P=0.004), higher AFP-L3 ( OR=1.066, 95% CI: 1.014-1.120, P=0.012), higher PIVKA-II ( OR=1.000, 95% CI: 1.000-1.001, P=0.042), multiple tumors ( OR=0.399, 95% CI: 0.225-0.706, P=0.038), and heterogeneous enhancement ( OR=0.472, 95% CI: 0.243-0.916, P=0.045) were significant risk factors for recurrence after partial hepatectomy in HCC patients. The nomogram constructed based on these variables had a C-index of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.93) in the training group and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) in the validation group. The calibration curves for predicting recurrence within 2 years after partial hepatectomy in HCC patients showed a high degree of fit in both the training and validation groups, indicating a good agreement between predicted and actual outcomes. Conclusion:The nomogram model constructed based on preoperative clinical and ultrasonographic characteristics can effectively predict the risk of recurrence within 2 years after radical resection of HCC.
