A risk model of postoperative 3-year all-cause mortality for the elderly patients with hip fracture: development and validation
10.3760/cma.j.cn115530-20240527-00224
- VernacularTitle:老年髋部骨折患者术后三年全因死亡风险模型建立及验证
- Author:
Ji SHI
1
;
Yanhui GUO
;
Rongji ZHANG
;
Xinming YANG
;
Xiaowei WANG
;
Jianzheng ZHANG
Author Information
1. 河北北方学院研究生学院，张家口 075000
- Keywords:
Hip fractures;
Aged;
Risk factors;
Cause of death;
Risk model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma
2024;26(11):948-955
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To develop and validate a risk model of postoperative 3-year all-cause mortality for the elderly patients with hip fracture.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 325 elderly patients with hip fracture who had been treated at The Fourth Medical Center, The General Hospital of PLA from January 2020 to December 2021. There were 90 men and 235 women with an age of (80.9±8.9) years, and 191 intertrochanteric fractures and 134 femoral neck fractures. The patients with hip fractures admitted from January 2020 to June 2021 were assigned to a modeling group (244 cases), and those admitted from July to December 2021 to a validation group (81 cases). Recorded were age, gender, fracture type, pre-injury disease, hematological indicators, time from injury to surgery, previous use of anticoagulant drugs, bone density, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grading, body mass index, and blood transfusion volume in the 2 groups of patients. The data in the modeling group were used to screen the independent risk factors for the postoperative 3-year all-cause mortality in the elderly patients with hip fracture through logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and consequently to construct a prediction model. The data in the validation group were used to analyze the predictive performance of the model through the ROC curve, and the fitting degree of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Results:Respectively, 75 cases in the modeling group and 29 cases in the validation group died 3 years after surgery. There was no statistically significant difference in the baseline data between the 2 groups, indicating comparability ( P>0.05). Logistic univariate analysis showed that gender, age, coronary atherosclerotic heart disease before injury, stroke before injury, pulmonary infection before injury, hemoglobin, albumin, high-density lipoprotein, body mass index, time from injury to surgery and ASA grade were related to the mortality of patients 3 years after surgery ( P<0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the variables with predictive ability included age, hemoglobin, albumin, body mass index, and time from injury to surgery. Logistic multivariate analysis showed male, age ≥ 83 years, pre-injury stroke, time from injury to surgery ≥ 4.5 days, ASA grade Ⅲ, and ASA grade Ⅳ were significantly related to the postoperative 3-year all-cause mortality in the elderly patients with hip fracture ( P<0.05). In the prediction model based on the above indicators, the area under the ROC curve was 0.792 (95% CI: 0.730 to 0.855, P<0.001), the cutoff value 0.459, sensitivity 56%, and specificity 90.5%, showing a good fit of the model ( χ2=5.818, P=0.668). Conclusions:Male, age ≥ 83 years, pre-injury stroke, time from injury to surgery ≥ 4.5 days, and ASA grades Ⅲ and Ⅳ are risk factors for postoperative 3-year all-cause mortality in the elderly patients with hip fracture. The risk prediction model based on these indicators demonstrates good predictive efficacy.
