Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for major complications 30 days after surgery in elderly patients with hip fracture
10.3760/cma.j.cn115530-20240201-00051
- VernacularTitle:老年髋部骨折患者术后30 d发生主要并发症的风险预测模型构建及验证研究
- Author:
Xiangyu XIAO
1
;
Zedong WAN
;
Yange ZHANG
;
Aidi ZHANG
;
Shuai WANG
;
Lingwei KONG
;
Haiying CAO
;
Yu JIN
Author Information
1. 承德医学院附属医院创伤骨科，承德 067000
- Keywords:
Hip fractures;
Post-operative complications;
Risk factors;
Aged;
Predictive models;
Nomogram
- From:
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma
2024;26(9):775-782
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct and validate a risk prediction model for major complications 30 days after surgery in the elderly patients with hip fracture.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 276 elderly patients with hip fracture who had been admitted to Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, The Hospital Affiliated to Chengde Medical University from June 2019 to December 2021. There were 96 males and 180 females with an age of (74.5±9.3) years, and 139 femoral neck fractures and 137 intertrochanteric fractures. The outcome of this study was whether major complications occurred within 30 days after surgery. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified the risk factors for major complications in the elderly patients with hip fracture within 30 days after surgery. The forward step-by-step method and likelihood ratio test were used to screen the best prediction model. A nomogram was constructed to display the model. The stability and effectiveness of the model were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, clinical decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that decreased preoperative hemoglobin ( P< 0.05), time from admission to surgery >72 hours ( OR=3.001, 95% CI: 1.564 to 5.758, P<0.001), control of nutritional status (CONUT) score >4 points ( OR=3.394, 95% CI: 1.724 to 6.680, P<0.001), and age-adjusted modified frailty index (aamFI) >2 points ( OR=2.875, 95% CI: 1.548 to 5.339, P= 0.001), increased operation time ( OR=1.016, 95% CI: 1.006 to 1.025, P=0.001), and surgical bleeding >60 mL ( OR=2.373, 95% CI: 1.016 to 5.540, P=0.046) were independent risk factors for major complications within 30 days after surgery in the elderly patients with hip fracture. The area under the ROC curve in the logistic risk prediction model was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.799 to 0.889), and the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed ( χ2=8.080, P=0.426). The clinical decision curve and clinical impact curve showed that the prediction model was accurate and effective. Conclusion:Based on the patients' preoperative hemoglobin, time from admission to surgery, control of nutritional status score, age-adjusted modified frailty index, operation time and surgical blood loss, this study has constructed successfully a risk prediction model for complications 30 days after surgery in the elderly patients with hip fracture which enables medical staff to predict the occurrence of major postoperative complications.
