Prediction Analysis on the Potential Suitable Areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China under Climate Change
10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202310344
- VernacularTitle:气候变化下我国两面针潜在适生区预测分析
- Author:
Zhiyuan ZHANG
1
,
2
;
Mingli ZHONG
;
Bo LI
;
Kefeng ZHANG
;
Houkang CAO
Author Information
1. 桂林医学院药学院,高发病防治药理学重点实验室,广西 桂林 541199
2. 广西药物分子发现与成药性优化重点实验室,广西 桂林 541199
- Keywords:
Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.;
climate change;
MaxEnt;
potential suitable areas;
prediction analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine
2024;31(6):7-13
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To predict and analyze the potential suitable areas of the Guangxi characteristic medicinal plant Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China under climate change;To provide reference for ecological conservation and artificial cultivation of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.Methods Based on the 49 pieces of geographical distribution information of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China,19 environmental factors,and the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,a species distribution model was constructed to predict and analyze the potential growth areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.under current and future climate change.Results Under the current climate change,the potential suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.in China mainly depended on 4 environmental factors:precipitation in the coldest season(Bio19),precipitation in the warmest season(Bio18),precipitation in the driest season(Bio17),and average annual temperature(Bio1).Under the future climate change,the center of mass of the high suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.will mainly migrate to the northeast and northwest,and the migration distance will range from 13.63 km to 153.95 km.Compared with the present,the stable and unchanged high suitable areas of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.under future climate change will be reduced to about 21.68%,and mainly distributed in southwest Guangxi,and these stable and unchanged areas will become the first choice for semi-artificial planting of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.Conclusion The results are helpful to provide scientific basis for formulating reasonable ecological conservation and artificial cultivation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the population spread of Zanthoxylum nitidum(Roxb.)DC.
