Analysis and prediction of global burden of stroke diseases from 1990 to 2049
10.3969/j.issn.1672-8270.2024.11.027
- VernacularTitle:1990年至2049年全球脑卒中疾病负担分析及预测
- Author:
Hujuan SHI
1
;
Yihang XIA
;
Yiran CHENG
;
Mingmei CHENG
;
Zhen LIANG
;
Yanzhong WANG
;
Wanqing XIE
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学生物医学工程学院 合肥 230032
- Keywords:
Stroke;
Global burden of disease;
Incidence;
Prevalence;
Case fatality;
Disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)
- From:
China Medical Equipment
2024;21(11):141-150
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the current status of the global burden of stroke disease from 1990 to 2019,to predict the development trend of stroke disease burden in the 30 years from 2020 to 2049,and to provide a basis for formulating national health policies on stroke diseases.Methods:The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019)database was searched to extract global stroke disease incidence,prevalence,case fatality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)disease burden indicators from 1990-2019,the trends over time were modeled using linear,Poisson,and exponential regressions,prediction and study of the relationship between stroke and sociodemographic index(SDI)based on per capita gross domestic product(GDP)were conducted.Results:The global burden of stroke disease increased significantly from 1990-2019 and is predicted to continue to rise over the next 30 years(2020-2049).In 2049,the global stroke incidence,prevalence,case fatality,and DALYs will increase by 8.53 million(63％),119.83 million(109％),7.79 million(118％)and 118.92 million person-years(79％),respectively,compared with 2019,with a significant increase in the burden of stroke in the elderly population.In the next 30 years,the age-standardized incidence rates of stroke in men and women will be similar,while the age-standardized rates of prevalence in women will be relatively higher,and age-standardized case fatality rates and DALYs in men will be relatively higher.The disease burden of stroke was negatively correlated with SDI.The burden of stroke disease was significantly higher in regions with a low SDI than in regions with a high SDI.Conclusion:The global burden of stroke will increase in the next 30 years,which may be related to the aging of population and closely related to the development of economy.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention of stroke and formulate targeted strategies targeted strategies according to different SDI regions.
