Research on the model construction of medical consumables replenishment strategy and inventory control strategy based on supply-process-distribution mode
10.3969/j.issn.1672-8270.2024.07.026
- VernacularTitle:基于SPD模式的医用耗材补货策略与库存控制策略模型构建研究
- Author:
Yucong YANG
1
;
Xiaoyao WANG
;
Guangcai BAO
;
Wei HUANG
;
Wei LIANG
Author Information
1. 本溪市中心医院卫材管理科 本溪 117000
- Keywords:
Supply-process-distribution(SPD)mode;
Medical consumables;
Replenishment strategy;
Artificial intelligence(AI);
Multiple population genetic algorithm(MPGA)
- From:
China Medical Equipment
2024;21(7):144-148
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To build a medical consumables demand prediction model to predict the demand for medical consumables,and to reduce the occurrence of emergency replenishment and shortage of medical consumables.Methods:The medical consumables demand prediction model was established using support vector regression(SVR)algorithm,the replenishment strategy and inventory control strategy optimization model was established using multiple population genetic algorithm(MPGA)to build a medical consumables demand forecasting model,and the replenishment strategy and inventory control strategy were automatically generated.The relevant data of supply-processing-distribution(SPD)mode introduced by Benxi Central Hospital for medical consumables management from January 2019 to May 2023 were selected for model training,model validation test(test set)and model application prediction(application set),respectively.The average absolute prediction error,peak prediction error and trough of prediction error of the model were evaluated,and the average ratio of consumption per day to inventory cost,the average number of urgent orders per month,the average number of out of stock per month,the average number of non-urgent orders per month and the decreasing range of the index weekly average were compared.Results:There was no statistically significant difference in the average absolute prediction error between the model test set and the application set(P＞0.05).The average absolute prediction error of the model was 0.033 5±0.024 5,the peak prediction error was 0.071 7 and the trough of prediction error was-0.0090.After the application of the model,the ratio of average daily consumption to inventory cost,the average number of monthly emergency order frequency,the average number of shortage of stock,and the average number of monthly non-emergency orders were(0.457 5±0.060 3),(23.95±6.04),(5.58±2.17),and(20.68±2.77),respectively.The ratio of daily average consumption to inventory cost was higher than that before the application,the average number of monthly emergency order,shortage of stock,and monthly non-emergency order were lower than those before the application,the difference was statistically significant(F=371.912,88.486,124.472,142.138,P＜0.000).After the application of the model,the weekly average inventory amount decreased by 43.66%,and the average number of emergency replenishment decreased by 53.76%,the average number of shortages of stock decreased by 76.95%,and the average shortage of stock normal replenishments decreased by 34.41%.Conclusion:The medical consumables demand prediction model can predict the demand for medical consumables,optimize replenishment and inventory control strategies,reduce the cost of medical consumables inventory,reduce occurrence of emergency replenishment and shortages of stock,and reduce the number of normal replenishment.
