Construction and Verification of a Risk Prediction Model for Death From Dissection Rupture in Patients With Acute Aortic Dissection During Emergency Treatment
10.3969/j.issn.1000-3614.2024.09.010
- VernacularTitle:急性主动脉夹层患者急诊救治期间夹层破裂死亡风险预测模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Zhixin ZHANG
1
;
Tao LIANG
;
Yanmin YANG
;
Chen ZHANG
;
Yunxia HAO
;
Yanjuan ZHANG
;
Rui ZHAO
;
Ran PANG
;
Jing YANG
Author Information
1. 中国医学科学院 北京协和医学院 国家心血管病中心 阜外医院 急诊科,北京 100037
- Keywords:
acute aortic dissection;
aortic rupture;
death;
risk factor;
risk prediction model
- From:
Chinese Circulation Journal
2024;39(9):903-909
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objectives:To explore the risk factors for death from ruptured acute aortic dissection during emergency treatment,construct and validate a risk prediction model for death from ruptured acute aortic dissection during emergency treatment. Methods:A total of 301 cases of acute aortic dissection patients who were admitted to Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Fuwai Hospital from January 2018 to August 2021 were included in this study.Patients were divided into survival subgroup(n=239)and death subgroup(n=62)according to whether dissection rupture occurred in the acute stage of the disease.Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed.Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the risk prediction model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was conducted to assess the model's goodness of fit,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve)was used to evaluate the model's predictive performance.A prospective validation was performed on 129 cases of acute aortic dissection patients admitted to our hospital's emergency department from September 2021 to September 2022. Results:Among the 301 cases of acute aortic dissection patients,there were 62 cases of rupture and death,with an incidence rate of 20.6%.The results of multivariate analysis showed that age(OR=1.066,95%CI:1.034-1.099),type A dissection(OR=0.045,95%CI:0.006-0.364),history of hypertension(OR=0.377,95%CI:0.167-0.850),and concomitant hypotension(OR=4.424,95%CI:1.467-13.340)were determinants of deaths.The model formula was Z=-5.624+0.064×age-0.976×history of hypertension(yes=1,no=0)-3.104×type(Type A=0,Type B=1)+1.487×concomitant hypotension(yes=1,no=0).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result showed χ2=9.328,df=8,P=0.315,the area under the ROC curve was 0.874,sensitivity was 79.0%,specificity was 81.6%,and the maximum Youden index was 0.606.The model validation result showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.722,sensitivity was 73.7%,specificity was 69.1%,and accuracy was 89.9%. Conclusions:Age,history of hypertension,dissection type,and combined hypotension are predictors of the risk prediction model for death from dissection rupture in patients with acute aortic dissection during emergency treatment.The model constructed in this study has good predictive performance,which can provide reference for medical staffto quickly identify high-risk patients for death from ruptured acute aortic dissection and timely predictive measures could be highlighted in indicated cases.
