Construction of risk factors and risk prediction model of complications after laparoscopic cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2024.09.008
- VernacularTitle:急性胆囊炎腹腔镜胆囊切除术后并发症危险因素与风险预测模型的构建
- Author:
Fei HE
1
;
Ming ZHOU
;
Si-Qiang GUAN
Author Information
1. 合肥市第八人民医院 普外科(安徽 合肥 238000)
- Keywords:
Acute cholecystitis;
Laparoscopic cholecystectomy;
Postoperative complications;
Risk prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2024;27(9):709-713
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the construction and empirical study of the risk predic-tion model of postoperative complications in patients with acute cholecystitis undergoing laparo-scopic cholecystectomy(LC).Method:The clinical data of 101 patients with acute cholecystitis treated by LC from January 2021 to January 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.According to the occurrence of postoperative complications(the following symptoms occurred within 30 days after surgery,such as abdominal hemorrhage,bile leakage,biliary tract injury and wound infection),pa-tients were divided into complication group(26 cases)and non-complication group(75 cases).Uni-variate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the affecting factors of complications after LC in patients with acute cholecystitis,and the risk prediction model was con-structed,and the predictive value of the model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve).Result:Univariate analysis showed that gender,BMI,cirrhosis,gallstone,gall-bladder atrophy and CCI grade were not correlated with postoperative complications in patients with acute cholecystitis after LC treatment(P＞0.05).Age,gallbladder wall thickness,triangular ana-tomic variation,ASA-PS grade,TG13/TG18 grade were associated with postoperative complica-tions of LC in patients with acute cholecystitis(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age＞70 years old,gallbladder wall thickness ≥5mm,triangular anatomical variation,ASA-PS grade Ⅲ～Ⅵ,TG13/TG18 grade Ⅲ were all independent risk factors for postoperative complications(P＜0.05).ROC analysis showed that the AUC of the risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indicators was 0.836,and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.8％and 82.7％,which were all higher than the single indicators in the model,and the degree of fit of the risk prediction model was good(Hosmer-Lemeshow x2=0.998,P=0.986).Conclusion:Age＞70 years old,gallbladder wall thickness ≥5mm,triangular anatomic variation,ASA-PS grade Ⅲ～Ⅵand TG13/TG18 grade Ⅲ were independent risk factors for postoperative complications in patients with acute cholecystitis undergoing LC treatment.The risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indicators has high predictive value for postoperative complications in patients with acute cholecystitis undergoing LC treatment.
