Research on counterfactual analysis model based on CFPS Data and its applications
10.3969/j.issn.1674-2982.2024.04.011
- VernacularTitle:基于CFPS数据的反事实分析模型及其应用研究
- Author:
Xiao-Ming REN
1
;
Qun-Hong WU
Author Information
1. 中国药学会科技开发中心 北京 100022
- Keywords:
Catastrophic health expenditure;
Health affordability;
Fairness of health financing;
Counterfactual analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Policy
2024;17(4):72-77
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:Expand and improve the unreasonable aspects of counterfactual analysis model based on the Newton-Cotes algorithm to enhance the accuracy of model estimation results and achieve more realistic simulation and counterfactual analysis.Methods:Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from Peking University,after widely comparing the fitting effects of different probability distribution functions,the probability distribution curves of household income and medical expenditure in China are fitted.Then,a virtual community consisting of 90000 heterogeneous families was constructed,and relevant indicator values were estimated based on the attribute values of each family.Results:The estimation results of the extended model for household income and medical expenditure expectations,as well as the changing trends of various main indicators,are basically consistent with the original model,but the estimation of the degree of dispersion of the two is more accurate,and the estimation results of policy effect simulation and counterfactual analysis are more correct and rigorous.Conclusion:The extended model can serve as a supplement and reference to the original model,and has high application value and operability.
