Using Instrumental Approach to Estimate the Effect of PM2.5 Concentrations on Daily Deaths
10.11783/j.issn.1002-3674.2024.04.010
- VernacularTitle:基于工具变量法的PM2.5浓度对每日死亡影响的效应估计
- Author:
Guiming ZHU
1
;
Haosen YAN
;
Tong WANG
Author Information
1. 滨州医学院公共卫生学院(264000)
- Keywords:
PM2.5;
Instrumental variable method;
Wind speed;
Boundary layer height;
Nonaccidental death;
Negative exposure control;
Bootstrap
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
2024;41(4):526-531,538
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Many environmental epidemiological studies have shown the associations between short-term exposure of air pollution and daily deaths.However,the generally available population data only contain a small number of measured confounding factors,which is faced with the problem that a large number of unobserved confounding factors are not included in the model,resulting in biased estimates.The instrumental variable method can solve the problem of estimating the effects caused by unobserved confounders.In this paper,We used the instrumental variable method to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on daily mortality.Methods We collected daily PM2.5 concentrations,meteorological data,and nonaccidental daily deaths in a Chinese city from 2016 to 2019.We used boundary layer height and wind speed as instrumental variables to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on nonaccidental daily mortality.Negative exposure control was used to test the hypothesis of instrumental variables.Meanwhile time series bootstrap method was used to estimate confidence interval.We compared the results of the generalized additive model and instrumental variable method.Results The instrumental variable method showed that PM2.5 was significantly related to daily deaths.For every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 concentrations,the nonaccidental daily deaths increased by 0.94%(95%CI:0.39%～1.55%).Negative exposure control results showed no correlation between negative exposure and nonaccidental deaths(P=0.19),indicated that the aforementioned instrumental variable model was not affected by unmeasured and uncontrolled confounders.The traditional generalized additive model estimated that for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations,the nonaccidental deaths would increase by 0.24%(95%CI:0.01%～0.47%).Conclusion The instrumental variable method estimated that PM2.5 concentrations were significantly correlated with the nonaccidental daily deaths.Boundary layer height and wind speed can be used as instrumental variables to estimate the effects of PM2.5 concentrations on nonaccidental deaths.
