Fitting Probability Distribution of Aedes Vector Density with Cubic Spline Function and its Risk Assessment
10.11783/j.issn.1002-3674.2024.03.017
- VernacularTitle:采用三次样条函数拟合蚊媒密度概率分布及其风险评估
- Author:
Siqing ZENG
1
;
Hui DENG
;
Jinhua DUAN
Author Information
1. 广东省疾病预防控制中心广东省公共卫生研究院(511430)
- Keywords:
MOI;
Risk assessment;
Cubic spline functions;
Probability distribution
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
2024;41(3):414-418
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To study the probability distribution of Mosquito ovitrap Index(MOI)risk of dengue Aedes vector,so as to provide a new method for more scientific and accurate MOI risk assessment.Methods Cubic spline function,cumulative probability distribution and python language programming were used to fit and analyze the MOI surveillance data of Guangzhou from 2016 to 2019 years.Results The probability distribution table and distribution figure of MOI risk assessment in Guangzhou from January to December were developed.From January to December,the MOI critical values were 7.54～60.12 and 5.05～34.10 with a cumulative probability less than 0.01 or 0.05 respectively.The critical value was the lowest in January,followed by December and February.The highest was in June,followed by May and July.From January to December,the probabilities of MOI risk grade of transmission,outbreak and epidemic were 5.07%～66.60%,0.25%～36.19%and 0.00%～16.80%respectively.The lowest risk probability of transmission,outbreak and epidemic occurred in January,followed by February respectively.The highest risk probability values appeared in July,July and June,followed by June,June and May respectively.Conclusion The probability distribution of MOI risk in each month in Guangzhou had significant seasonal growth and decline laws and characteristics,which were worthy of attention in the monitoring,evaluation and control of dengue Aedes vector.It provided a new analysis method for MOI risk assessment fitting based on cubic spline functions and cumulative probability distribution.
