Application of Multi-state Markov Model in the Natural History of Alzheimer's Disease

VernacularTitle:多状态Markov模型在阿尔茨海默病自然史中的应用
Author: Yao QIN ¹ ; Hongjuan HAN ; Long LIU
Author Information

1. 山西医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室(030001)
Keywords: Multi-state Markov model; Alzheimer's disease; Chronic disease; Natural history
From: Chinese Journal of Health Statistics 2024;41(2):227-230,234
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to explore the natural history of Alzheimer's disease(AD)based on the multi-state Markov model and to provide methodological reference for the chronic diseases.Methods Based on the American public database ADNI,we constructed a three states Markov model to estimate the transition intensity,transition probability,influencing factors and sojourn time of different states.Survival curves and goodness of fit was obtained.Results Gender,age,FAQ,MMSE,CDRSB,ADAS13 and TMT-B-Time were important influencing factors in the natural history of AD.The mean sojourn time of NC and MCI was 7.502 and 11.621 years,respectively.Model fit can be accepted.Conclusion Multi-state Markov model has a good application value for the outcome prediction of multi-state chronic diseases such as AD.