Establishment of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model of Tuberculosis Incidence in Heze City and Evaluation of its Prediction Effect

VernacularTitle:菏泽市肺结核发病自回归移动平均模型的建立及其预测效果评价
Author: Fusheng SUN ¹ ; Hongmin LIU ; Jing WANG
Author Information

1. 菏泽市疾病预防控制中心(274000)
Keywords: Pulmonary tuberculosis; ARIMA model; Predict; Heze
From: Chinese Journal of Health Statistics 2024;41(2):185-189
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective An autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was established to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in Heze in 2022.Methods Based on the monthly registered incidence of tuberculosis patients in Heze city from 2010 to 2020,the optimal ARIMA model was established to predict the incidence in 2021 and compare with the actual value,so as to evaluate the prediction effect and predict the incidence trend in 2022.Results The incidence of tuberculosis in Heze city showed a decreasing trend year by year,with certain seasonal changes.The optimal model was ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12,the fitting results showed that the overall prediction error rate was 2.59%and the mean absolute percentage error was 17.76%in 2021.The number of cases predicted in 2022 was 1644,which continued to show a downward trend and the epidemic situation was stable.Conclusion ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model can better predict the short-term incidence trend of tuberculosis in Heze city,but it should be modified according to the changes of monitoring data to improve the prediction accuracy.