Effects of climate change on scrub typhus in Xiamen
10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2024.00.141
- VernacularTitle:气候变化对厦门市恙虫病发病影响的研究
- Author:
Xue-Mei KE
1
;
Jiao-Na CHEN
;
Shan-Shan MA
;
Si-Han WU
;
Chun-Xiang CAI
;
Xiao-Yan WANG
;
Shi-Jie HUANG
Author Information
1. 厦门市疾病预防控制中心,厦门 361021
- Keywords:
scrub typhus;
meteorological factors;
predic-tion mod
- From:
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses
2024;40(10):965-970
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
This study was aimed at examining the influence of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in Xiamen.Scrub ty-phus monitoring data and meteorological factors were collected in Xiamen from 2005 to 2023.Spearman correlation analysis and nonlinear regression were used to analyze the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors.The inci-dence of scrub typhus first increased and subsequently decreased in Xiamen from 2005 to 2023.The highest incidence was be-tween 2014 and 2016,and the peak incidence was from June to October.The monthly incidence of scrub typhus positively cor-related with daily minimum temperature(r=0.637,P＜0.001,daily average temperature(r=0.627,P＜0.001),daily maxi-mum temperature(r=0.612,P＜0.001),sunshine duration(r=0.405,P＜0.001),average relative humidity(r=0.346,P＜0.001),and daily rainfall(r=0.207,P=0.002),and negatively correlated with average atmospheric pressure(r=-0.549,P＜0.001),whereas no correlation was observed with the average wind speed in Xiamen.The regression equation of scrub ty-phus monthly incidence and meteorological parameters was y=-433.869-11.503x1+0.381x1 2+9.150x2-0.197x2 2+3.936 x3-0.132x3 2+0.881x4+0.035x4 2-1.048x5+0.009x5 2+0.186x6-0.023x6 2+0.421x7+6.210×10-5x8-1.051 × 10-10x8 2 in Xiamen,and the R2 was 0.473,thus indicating good model fit.Scrub typhus incidence correlated with the daily minimum av-erage temperature,average temperature,daily maximum tem-perature,sunshine duration,daily rainfall,relative humidity,and average atmospheric pressure in Xiamen.Various meteoro-logical factors had differing effects on scrub typhus.
