Construction and validation of risk prediction model for recurrence of contralateral hip fracture in elderly patients within 2 years after operation
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20230904-00888
- VernacularTitle:老年髋部骨折患者术后2年内再发对侧髋部骨折风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Tao WEN
1
;
Jie ZHAO
;
Yanyun WANG
;
Xuan YIN
;
Wen FAN
;
Yao HAO
Author Information
1. 山西医科大学第一医院骨科，太原 030000
- Keywords:
Aged;
Hip fracture;
Recurrent contralateral hip fracture;
Risk factors;
Nomograph
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2024;30(20):2751-2756
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors of recurrent contralateral hip fracture within 2 years after operation in elderly patients with hip fracture, construct a nomogram prediction model and validate the model.Methods:A total of 601 elderly patients with hip fracture who underwent surgical treatment in Department of Orthopedics in First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from June 2018 to June 2020 were selected as research objects by the convenient sampling method. They were divided into the modeling set ( n=421) and the verification set ( n=180). According to the incidence of recurrent contralateral hip fracture within 2 years of follow-up, the modeling set was divided into the recurrent fracture group and the normal group, and the clinical data of the two groups were compared. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for recurrent contralateral hip fracture in elderly patients within 2 years after surgery. R 3.6 software was used to build a risk factor nomogram model for recurrent contralateral hip fracture. Receiver operating characteristic ( ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the differentiation and consistency of the model. Results:In 601 elderly patients with hip fracture, the incidence of recurrent contralateral hip fracture within 2 years after surgery was 8.49% (51/601), among which the incidence of modeling set was 8.31% (35/421) and the incidence of verification set was 8.89% (16/180). In the modeling set, the age, female proportion, osteoporosis proportion, combined internal medical disease proportion and malnutrition proportion of patients in the recurrent fracture group were higher than those in the normal group ( P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that gender, age, osteoporosis and combined internal medical diseases were the factors affecting the recurrence of contralateral hip fracture within 2 years after operation in elderly patients with hip fracture ( P<0.05). The equation for constructing a nomogram prediction model was Logit ( P) = -8.521+0.335×age+ 0.116×female +0.341× osteoporosis +0.280 ×combined internal medical diseases. The modeling set predicted the probability of recurrent contralaterial hip fracture according to the nomogram model, and plotted the ROC curve with sensitivity of 0.826, specificity of 0.804, and area under ROC curve ( AUC) of 0.876. The sensitivity of ROC curve of the validation set was 0.788, the specificity was 0.781, and the AUC was 0.830. After internal verification by Bootstrap method, the prediction model of the modeling set and the verification set were well distinguished, and the prediction probability and the actual incidence were well consistent (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2=0.462, P=0.674) . Conclusions:Advanced age, female, osteoporosis and combined internal medical diseases are independent risk factors for recurrent contralateral hip fractures in elderly patients with hip fractures within 2 years after surgery. The nomogram model constructed based on this has high predictive efficacy for recurrent hip fractures, which can be used to assess the risk of recurrent fractures and improve the prognosis of patients.
