Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for central venous catheter dysfunction in hemodialysis patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20231114-02052
- VernacularTitle:血液透析患者中心静脉导管功能不良风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Luxia WEI
1
;
Yuling LI
;
Xiaohong MENG
;
Guang ZHANG
Author Information
1. 山西医科大学护理学院，太原 030001
- Keywords:
Renal dialysis;
Central venous catheter;
Risk factor;
Prediction model;
Nursing
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2024;30(19):2578-2585
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the risk factors for central venous catheter (CVC) dysfunction in hemodialysis patients, construct a risk prediction model, and verify the model's predictive performance.Methods:The retrospective research method was adopted. From January 2021 to August 2023, convenience sampling was used to select 442 patients who underwent hemodialysis by CVC at the First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital, and Shanxi Bethune Hospital as the study subjects. Patients were divided into a modeling group ( n=309) and a validation group ( n=133) according to the order of time of CVC. The modeling group was divided into groups based on whether patients experienced catheter dysfunction. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of hemodialysis catheter dysfunction and construct a nomogram model. The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the calibration curve, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ( AUC), and the Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of thrombosis, blood hypercoagulability, catheterization site, catheter-related infection, and catheterization duration were influencing factors for catheter dysfunction in hemodialysis ( OR=5.119, 5.174, 6.362, 2.913, and 5.353; all P<0.05). The above five factors were used as independent variables to construct a nomogram. Internal validation of the model showed that the Hosmer Lemeshow test was χ 2=10.828, P=0.212, and AUC was 0.837 [95% confidence interval (0.781, 0.893) ], and the calibration curve fitted well with the ideal curve. External validation of the model indicated that the Hosmer Lemeshow test was χ 2=1.944, P=0.925, and AUC was 0.825 [95% confidence interval (0.744, 0.906) ], and the calibration curve almost coincided with the ideal curve. Conclusions:The constructed nomogram can predict the risk of catheter dysfunction in hemodialysis patients and provide a reference for nursing staff to develop corresponding interventions.
