A novel nomogram-based model to predict the postoperative overall survival in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer
- VernacularTitle:以营养风险筛查2002评分建立胃结直肠癌患者术后生存期预测模型
- Author:
Siwen WANG
1
;
Kangjing XU
;
Xuejin GAO
;
Tingting GAO
;
Guangming SUN
;
Yaqin XIAO
;
Haoyang WANG
;
Chenghao ZENG
;
Deshuai SONG
;
Yupeng ZHANG
;
Lingli HUANG
;
Bo LIAN
;
Jianjiao CHEN
;
Dong GUO
;
Zhenyi JIA
;
Yong WANG
;
Fangyou GONG
;
Junde ZHOU
;
Zhigang XUE
;
Zhida CHEN
;
Gang LI
;
Mengbin LI
;
Wei ZHAO
;
Yanbing ZHOU
;
Huanlong QIN
;
Xiaoting WU
;
Kunhua WANG
;
Qiang CHI
;
Jianchun YU
;
Yun TANG
;
Guoli LI
;
Li ZHANG
;
Xinying WANG
Author Information
- Keywords: Gastric and colorectal cancer; Nutrition Risk Screening 2002; Postoperative survival; Nomogram; Multicenter study
- From: Chinese Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2024;32(3):138-149
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective:We aimed to develop a novel visualized model based on nomogram to predict postoperative overall survival.Methods:This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study, including participants with histologically confirmed gastric and colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery from 11 medical centers in China from August 1, 2015 to June 30, 2018. Baseline characteristics, histopathological data and nutritional status, as assessed using Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) score and the scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment, were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and Cox regression were used to identify variables to be included in the predictive model. Internal and external validations were performed.Results:There were 681 and 127 patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 188 deaths were observed over a median follow-up period of 59 (range: 58 to 60) months. Two independent predictors of NRS 2002 and Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage were identified and incorporated into the prediction nomogram model together with the factor of age. The model's concordance index for 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival was 0.696, 0.724, and 0.738 in the training cohort and 0.801, 0.812, and 0.793 in the validation cohort, respectively.Conclusions:In this study, a new nomogram prediction model based on NRS 2002 score was developed and validated for predicting the overall postoperative survival of patients with gastric colorectal cancer. This model has good differentiation, calibration and clinical practicability in predicting the long-term survival rate of patients with gastrointestinal cancer after radical surgery.
