Construction and verification of cognitive frailty risk prediction model in elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20230731-00286
- VernacularTitle:老年住院高血压病患者认知衰弱风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Mengyao WEI
1
;
Mengwen LI
;
Ludan XU
;
Mengya HAN
;
Yan XU
;
Binru HAN
;
Yu ZHANG
Author Information
1. 首都医科大学宣武医院护理部，北京 100053
- Keywords:
Aged;
Hypertensive;
Hospitalized patients;
Cognitive frailty;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2023;29(36):4952-4958
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate risk factors for cognitive decline in elderly hospitalised hypertensive patients, develop a risk prediction model and validate it.Methods:By the convenient sampling method, a total of 379 elderly hypertensive patients admitted to Department of Cardiology, Department of Geriatrics (General) and Department of Endocrinology in Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University from April to October 2022 were selected as the study objects. Binomial Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors of cognitive frailty in elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients and establish a prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test were used to evaluate the prediction effect and calibration degree of the model, and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification.Results:Among 379 elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients, 145 (38.3%) had cognitive frailty. Binomial Logistic regression analysis showed that age, education level, drinking history, daily exercise, use of angiotensin receptor antagonists, Barthel index and nutritional status were the influential factors for cognitive frailty in elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients ( P< 0.05). The area under ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.770 (95% CI: 0.721-0.819, P< 0.001), the sensitivity was 0.607, the specificity was 0.838, and the maximum approximate entry index was 0.445. Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test χ 2=3.581, P=0.893. Internal validation was conducted using the Bootstrap method to resample 1 000 times, and the results showed that the average area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.737 (0.687-0.788) . Conclusions:The risk prediction model for cognitive decline in elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients can predict the risk of cognitive frailty in elderly hospitalized hypertensive patients, which can provide references for medical staff to develop corresponding intervention measures.
