Construction and validation of a nomogram model for nasopharyngeal bleeding risk in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients underwent radiotherapy
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20220814-03960
- VernacularTitle:鼻咽癌放疗患者鼻咽部出血风险的列线图模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Yang WANG
1
;
Yunfei NIE
;
Ruiqing DI
;
Jingjing CHEN
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第一附属医院介入科，郑州 450052
- Keywords:
Nasopharyngeal neoplasms;
Radiotherapy;
Bleeding;
Nomograms;
Risk factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2023;29(12):1598-1602
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for nasopharyngeal bleeding risk in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients underwent radiotherapy, and to verify the application value of the model.Methods:From June 2020 to December 2021, 317 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients underwent radiotherapy in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were enrolled by the convenience sampling method, and divided into the bleeding group and the non-bleeding group according to the occurrence of nasopharyngeal hemorrhage bleeding. Univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the independent risk factors of nasopharyngeal hemorrhage patients underwent radiotherapy, and a nomogram model was constructed. Correction curve, Hosmer- Lemeshow ( H- L) goodness fit test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the model, and the area under ROC curve was calculated. Results:Multivariate Logistic regression analysis results showed that hypertension, skull base invasion, synchronous chemotherapy, anterior field+skull base irradiation, tumor rectum growth and average radiation dose≥70 Gy were the independent risk factors of nasopharyngeal hemorrhage in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients underwent radiotherapy ( P<0.05). H- L goodness fit test results showed that there was no significant difference between the calibration curve predicted by the nomogram model and the ideal model curve (χ 2=3.469, P=0.614), and the area under ROC curve was 0.778 (95% CI: 0.705-0.947) . Conclusions:Hypertension, skull base invasion, synchronous chemotherapy, anterior field+skull base irradiation, tumor crypt growth and radiation dose≥70 Gy were the independent risk factors for nasopharyngeal hemorrhage in nasopharyngeal cancer patients underwent radiotherapy. The nomogram model constructed in this study has good differentiation and accuracy, which can provide a reference for medical staffs to develop targeted intervention strategies.
