Clinical study of constructing nomogram model based on multi-dimensional clinical indicators to predict prognosis of knee osteoarthritis
10.12200/j.issn.1003-0034.20220337
- VernacularTitle:基于多维度临床指标构建列线图模型预测膝骨关节炎预后
- Author:
Xin WANG
1
;
Cong-Jun YE
;
Zhen-Zhong DENG
;
Yan XUE
;
Chen-Hui WEI
;
Qing-Biao LI
;
Yang-Ming LUO
;
Jian-Zhong GAN
Author Information
1. 广西梧州市中医医院骨二科,广西 梧州 543000
- Keywords:
Knee osteoarthritis;
Prognosis;
Multivariate analysis;
Nomogram model
- From:
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology
2024;37(2):184-190
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with knee osteoarthritis,and to construct a nomogram prediction model in conjunction with multi-dimensional clinical indicators.Methods The clinical data of 234 pa-tients with knee osteoarthritis who were treated in our hospital from January 2015 to June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed,including 126 males and 108 females;age more than 60 years old for 135 cases,age less than 60 years old for 99 cases.Lysholm knee function score was used to evaluate the prognosis of the patients,and the patients were divided into good progno-sis group for 155 patients and poor prognosis group for 79 patients according to the prognosis.The clinical data of the subjects in the experimental cohort were analyzed by single factor and multiple factors.The patients were divided into experimental co-hort and verification cohort,the results of the multiple factor analysis were visualized to obtain a nomogram prediction model,the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the model's dis-crimination,accuracy and clinical benefit rate.Results The results of multivariate analysis showed that smoking,pre-treatment K-L grades of Ⅲto Ⅳ,and high levels of interleukin 6(IL-6)and matrix metallo proteinase-3(MMP-3)were risk factors for the prognosis of patients with knee osteoarthritis.ROC test results showed that the area under the curve of the nomogram model in the experimental cohort and validation cohort was 0.806[95％CI(0.742,0.866)]and 0.786[(95％CI(0.678,0.893)],re-spectively.The results of the calibration curve showed that the Brier values of the experimental cohort and verification cohort were 0.151 points and 0.134 points,respectively.When the threshold probability value in the decision curve was set to 31％,the clinical benefit rates of the experimental cohort and validation cohort were 51％and 56％,respectively.Conclusion The prognostic model of patients with knee osteoarthritis constructed based on multi-dimensional clinical data has both theoretical and practical significance,and can provide a reference for taking targeted measures to improve the prognosis of patients.
