Establishment and validation of prediction model of concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma undergoing chemotherapy
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20220411-01733
- VernacularTitle:老年恶性淋巴瘤化疗患者并发感染预测模型的建立与验证
- Author:
Yuanyuan LIN
1
;
Yingmei DU
;
Xiaofei LIN
;
Yuan TIAN
;
Songfu JIANG
Author Information
1. 温州医科大学附属第一医院血液内科，温州 325000
- Keywords:
Aged;
Malignant lymphoma;
Chemotherapy;
Infection;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2023;29(6):798-803
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma undergoing chemotherapy, construct a risk prediction model and verify its effectiveness.Methods:A total of 92 elderly patients with malignant lymphoma admitted to Department of Hematology in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2019 to August 2021 were selected as the research objects by the convenient sampling method. The age, gender, nutritional risk, activities of daily living (ADL), comorbidities, occurrence of infection, treatment time and prognosis of the patients were collected. The independent risk factors for concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma undergoing chemotherapy were analyzed, and the risk prediction model and line graph were constructed for internal validation by Bootstrap.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that ADL score, nutritional screening score and Charlson's Weighted Index of Comorbidities (CCI) score were independent risk factors for concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma undergoing chemotherapy ( P<0.05). The prediction model of concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma undergoing chemotherapy was established, namely Z=0.983×CCI score +1.075× nutritional screening score +0.645×ADL score -5.115. The C-index of the prediction model nomogram was 0.785 [95% CI (0.692-0.879) ], indicating good differentiation. According to the correction curve verified internally by Bootstrap, the absolute error of the possibility prediction of the nomogram model was 0.028, which was in good consistency. Conclusions:The risk prediction model of concurrent infection in elderly patients with malignant lymphoma chemotherapy is constructed based on ADL score, nutritional screening score and CCI score, which are easy to obtain and evaluate, and the nomogram of the prediction model is established with good differentiation and consistency.
