Distribution of potential suitable habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province based on the maximum entropy model
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20240626-00186
- VernacularTitle:基于最大熵模型的黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区分布研究
- Author:
Yue WANG
1
;
Yaming ZHANG
;
Shuang YUAN
;
Yang DING
;
Xin GUAN
;
Shengnan GAO
;
Guangping SONG
;
Lei TANG
Author Information
1. 哈尔滨市退役军人服务中心综合部，哈尔滨 150036
- Keywords:
Ixodes persulcatus;
Maximum entropy model;
Environmental factor;
Habitat
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2024;43(11):885-890
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the distribution of potential suitable habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods. Methods:The geographical location data of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2023 were collected through literature search and field ecological investigation. The environmental factor variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website and the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Platform. A combination of SDMtune, ENMTools packages, and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were used to predict the potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods and determine its dominant environmental factors. Among them, the time range of historical climatic period data was 1970 - 2000. The future climatic period data (2021 - 2040, 2041 - 2060) were selected as the low forcing scenario (SSP126 scenario) of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) in the Beijing Climate Center - Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution, to simulate the impact of global warming on the distribution of potential habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province. Results:A total of 83 geographical distribution sites of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province were obtained. After screening, 10 environmental factors were included in the MaxEnt model. Among them, the cumulative contribution percentage of annual precipitation, average annual temperature, and vegetation type was 67.3%. Compared with historical climatic period, the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province increased from 29.81 × 10 4 km 2 to 32.24 × 10 4 km 2 in 2041 - 2060. The center of potential habitats moved to 47.75° N, and 128.66° E, with a northwest offset of 126.07° and a migration distance of 45.83 km. Conclusion:With global climate warming, the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province has increased, showing an overall trend of migration to the northwest.
