Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort analysis of the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20221109-00371
- VernacularTitle:全国肾综合征出血热发病趋势的贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析
- Author:
Tian LIU
1
;
Rui YANG
;
Dexin RUAN
;
Yang WU
;
Yeqing TONG
;
Hongying CHEN
;
Jing ZHAO
Author Information
1. 荆州市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所，荆州 434000
- Keywords:
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome;
Age;
Period;
Birth cohort
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2024;43(10):790-795
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To learn about the age, period, birth cohort characteristics, and incidence trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) nationwide.Methods:HFRS monitoring data from 2004 to 2018 were collected from the National Public Health Science Data Center (https://www.phsciencedata.cn/). The trend of incidence rate of HFRS was analyzed by joinpoint regression, and the linear trend was estimated by annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) analysis of the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on HFRS cases was conducted, with age, period, and birth cohort used as reference for the 40 - 44 age group, 2011, and 1968, respectively, the RR and 95% CI were calculated. Results:From 2004 to 2018, a total of 190 197 HFRS cases were reported nationwide, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.95/100 000. Among them, the highest incidence rate of HFRS was 1.93/100 000 in 2004. Since 2007, it had continued to fluctuate below 1.00/100 000, ranging from 0.66/100 000 to 0.99/100 000. Joinpoint regression fitting results showed that the overall incidence of HFRS in China was declining (AAPC = - 7.33%, 95% CI: - 8.07% - - 6.58%, P < 0.001); the APCs from 2004 to 2007, 2007 to 2009, and 2012 to 2016 were - 32.00%, - 8.74%, and - 9.02%, respectively, all showed a downward trend( P < 0.05); the APCs from 2009 to 2012 and from 2016 to 2018 were 14.69% and 11.38%, respectively, both showed an upward trend ( P < 0.05). HFRS cases were reported in all age groups, and the reported incidence rate showed a unimodal distribution with age. Among them, the highest incidence rate was in the 50 - 54 age group (1.75/100 000), and the lowest incidence rate was in the 0 - 4 age group (0.03/100 000); the proportion of cases in the age group of 60 years and above increased from 9.75% in 2004 to 25.90% in 2018, showed an increasing trend year by year (χ 2trend = 9 210.90, P<0.001). The analysis results of the BAPC model showed that in the age effect analysis, compared with the reference age group, there was no significant difference in the incidence risk among the age groups of 15 - 79 years old ( P > 0.05), while the incidence risk was lower in the age groups of 14 years old and below, and 80 years old and above ( RR < 1, P < 0.05). In the analysis of period effects, compared with the reference year, the incidence risk was higher from 2004 to 2006 and from 2012 to 2014 ( RR > 1 , P < 0.05), and lower from 2008 to 2010 and from 2017 to 2018 ( RR < 1, P < 0.05); the overall trend was consistent with the descriptive analysis of onset period. In the analysis of birth cohort effect, compared with the reference cohort, the population born between 1920 - 1935 and 1970 - 2018 had lower incidence risk ( RR < 1, P < 0.05); but the risk of disease in the population born after 2003 showed an upward trend. Conclusions:The HFRS epidemic in China has decreased from 2004 to 2018, but the downward trend in recent years is not significant. The incidence risk has increased among people born after 2003. The population aged 60 and above is a key group for further controlling the HFRS epidemic in China.
