Epidemiological characteristics and spatio-temporal aggregation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2022
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20231225-00144
- VernacularTitle:2010 - 2022年杭州市肾综合征出血热流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析
- Author:
Zhe WANG
1
;
Renjie HUANG
;
Lei ZHU
;
Shuang FENG
;
Zhaokai HE
;
Liangliang HUO
;
Zhou SUN
Author Information
1. 杭州市疾病预防控制中心（杭州市卫生监督所）公共卫生应急办，杭州 310021
- Keywords:
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome;
Epidemiological characteristics;
Joinpoint regression;
Spatial autocorrelation;
Spatio-temporal aggregation
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2024;43(7):586-592
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To study the epidemiological and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Hangzhou City, providing a scientific basis for prevention and control of HFRS.Methods:Data of HFRS cases reported in Hangzhou City from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2022 were collected through the Infectious Disease Surveillance and Reporting Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the prevalence and three-distribution characteristics of HFRS in Hangzhou City. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of HFRS incidence in Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2022. Global and local spatial autocorrelation were used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of HFRS and the hotspots of incidence in Hangzhou City. And spatio-temporal scanning was used to analyze the spatio-temporal aggregation areas of HFRS in Hangzhou City.Results:From 2010 to 2022, a total of 224 HFRS cases were reported in Hangzhou City, with an average annual incidence of 0.18/100 000. The distribution of cases showed obvious seasonality, with peak incidence in spring (March to May) and autumn (September to November), accounting for 30.80% (69/224) and 26.34% (59/224), respectively. HFRS cases were reported in all districts (counties, cities) of the city, among which Xiaoshan District (66 cases, 29.46%), Chun'an County (41 cases, 18.30%) and Jiande City (25 cases, 11.16%) ranked the top three. The majority of the cases were individuals aged 31 to 60 (65.18%, 146/224), males (74.55%, 167/224), and farmers (46.43%, 104/224). Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that the overall incidence of HFRS in Hangzhou City was in downward trend from 2010 to 2022 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = - 5.01%, 95% confidence intervals ( CI): - 9.46% to - 0.34%, t = - 2.10, P = 0.036]. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a positive spatial correlation in the incidence of HFRS among various streets (townships) in Hangzhou City from 2011 to 2014, 2018, and 2020 (Moran's I > 0, Z > 1.96, P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that from 2010 to 2022, the number of streets (towns) in hot areas (high-high) in Hangzhou City was 0, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0, 0, 4, 0, 1, 0, and 1, respectively, and was relatively fixed in the southwest districts (counties, cities). Spatio-temporal scan analysis identified three clusters: Cluster I was from August 2011 to January 2015, centered on Fenkou Town in Chun'an County, involving 5 townships in Chun'an County; Cluster Ⅱ-1 was from August 2012 to March 2016, centered on Puyang Town in Xiaoshan District, involving 5 townships in Xiaoshan District; Cluster Ⅱ-2 was from June 2019 to June 2020, centered on Xiaya Town in Jiande City, not involving other streets (townships). Conclusions:From 2010 to 2022, the majority of HFRS cases in Hangzhou City are middle-aged male farmers. The overall trend of HFRS epidemic is decreasing, mainly concentrated in the southwest districts (counties, cities) of Hangzhou City. In the future, precise prevention and control measures should be implemented in key areas and among key populations.
