Construction of a risk prediction model for poor healing of surgical incisions after removal of thoracic and abdominal drainage tubes
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20210316-01150
- VernacularTitle:胸腹腔引流管拔除后手术切口愈合不良风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Haiqing ZHOU
1
;
Mingxue WANG
;
Chunye WANG
;
Enxia ZHU
;
He LIU
;
Lifei SHI
;
Xiumei CHU
Author Information
1. 青岛大学附属医院胸外科，青岛 266000
- Keywords:
Wound healing;
Drainage tube;
Risk adjustment;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2022;28(1):70-75
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To explore the independent risk factors of poor healing of surgical incisions in patients with drainage tube removal after thoracic and abdominal surgery and establish a risk prediction model for poor healing of surgical incisions.Methods:Using the convenient sampling method, a total of 545 patients who underwent thoracic and abdominal surgery in the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University were selected from July to December 2020. The patients were divided into the poor wound healing group ( n=87) and the non-incision poor healing group ( n=458) according to whether they had poor wound healing. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of poor healing of surgical incisions and build a risk prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve was used to test the model to predict the effect and 230 patients were selected to verify the model prediction effect. Results:In this study, 5 factors including duration of exudation, serum albumin, incision infection, the volume of exudation during catheterization and catheterization time were finally included to construct a risk prediction model. The model formula was Z=4.608+4.855× duration of exudation +3.173× serum albumin +3.739× infection of the incision +2.271×the volume of exudation during catheterization + 0.466× catheterization time. The area under ROC curve of this model was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.678 - 0.868). The maximum value of Youden index was 0.549, the sensitivity was 0.742 and the specificity was 0.807. Conclusions:The risk prediction model of poor incision healing after drainage tube removal for patients undergoing thoracic and abdominal surgery can better predict the risk of poor incision healing and provide a basis for clinical medical staff to take preventive management measures for high-risk patients in time.
