Research of Rothman-Keller risk forewarning model on stroke incidence in elder community patients with hypertensive
10.3760/cma.j.cn115682-20201223-06836
- VernacularTitle:Rothman-Keller预警模型预测社区老年高血压患者脑卒中发生风险的研究
- Author:
Rui LI
1
;
Xiaoxia FANG
;
Jie ZHAO
;
Qiufang LI
;
Yanli LI
;
Huimin ZHANG
;
Zhimin ZHANG
;
Hongling YANG
Author Information
1. 新乡市中心医院，新乡医学院第四临床学院神经外科一 453000
- Keywords:
Aged;
Hypertension;
Stroke;
Community;
Risk pre-warning
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2021;27(27):3728-3732
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To observe the application effect of Rothman-Keller risk forewarning model on stroke incidence in elder community patients with hypertensive.Methods:A total of 1 267 elder hypertensive patients were selected as research objects from 4 community hospitals cooperated with Xinxiang Central Hospital in June 2018. 12 related risk factors were collected according to the Rothman-Keller model, including systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density liptein cholesterol (HDL-c) , low density lipoprotein (LDL-c) , homocysteine (Hcy) , Hyperuricemia, impaired fasting glucose/diabetes, family history of stroke, carotid plaque positive, regular medication, physical exercise and smoking. The differences on risk factors were compared among patients with different characteristics. The patients were followed up in June 2019 and June 2020 respectively. The follow-up mainly included blood pressure control, stroke incidence and death. Rothman-Keller model was used to evaluate the risk of stroke in elderly patients with hypertension in the general population and different gender groups, and the application effect of the model was analyzed.Results:Among 1 267 patients with hypertension, 54 cases were lost to follow-up, and the loss rate was 4.26%. The follow-up time was (43.40±8.22) months. The systolic blood pressure, LDL-c, the proportion of smoking and the positive rate of carotid plaque in male patients were significantly higher than those in female patients, with statistical significance ( P<0.05) . The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic coincidence rate of Rothman-Keller model for stroke in general population, male population and female population were 0.82, 0.76, 75.93%; 0.86, 0.82, 81.78%; 0.73, 0.83, 82.61%, respectively. According to Rothman-Keller model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of stroke in total population, male population and female population were 0.773, 0.784 and 0.824 respectively ( P<0.01) . Conclusions:Rothman-Keller model can well predict the risk of stroke in elderly patients with hypertension in the community. It is a simple and practical prediction tool.
