Analysis of factors affecting postnatal glucose metabolism in pregnant women with gestational diabetes and construction of a nomogram prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20221206-01077
- VernacularTitle:影响妊娠期糖尿病孕妇产后糖代谢的相关因素分析及列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Juan SHI
1
;
Yunhua YAN
;
Aihua ZHANG
;
Peixin LI
;
Ning LI
;
Wei CHEN
Author Information
1. 丹阳市人民医院妇产科，丹阳 212300
- Keywords:
Diabetes, gestational;
Abnormal glucose metabolism;
Nomogram prediction model;
Influencing factors
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2024;47(6):487-492
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the relevant factors affecting postnatal glucose metabolism in pregnant women with gestational diabetes and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:Using a retrospective study method, 210 cases of gestational diabetes patients admitted to Danyang People′s Hospital from March 2019 to November 2021 were selected as the study subjects, and they were divided into 125 cases of normal group and 85 cases of abnormal group according to the postnatal glucose metabolism. The predictive value was analyzed using the subject work characteristics (ROC) curve experiment; the risk factors affecting abnormal postpartum glucose metabolism in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus were analyzed using Logistic regression experiment; and the clinical efficacy of the column-line diagram model was verified using internal data.Results:There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups when comparing the general information such as age ( P>0.05); compared with the normal group, the abnormal group had higher values of total cholesterol (TG), postprandial 2 h blood glucose (OGTT 2 h), glycosylated hemoglobin, and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI): (4.23 ± 1.35) mmol/L vs. (3.65 ± 1.50) mmol/L, (9.36 ± 1.25) mmol/L vs. (8.20 ± 1.51) mmol/L, (8.31 ± 2.96)% vs. (6.73 ± 2.23)%, (24.96 ± 4.21) kg/m 2 vs. (23.20 ± 3.25) kg/m 2, and those with a family history of diabetes mellitus were higher: 47.06%(40/85) vs. 20.80%(26/125), there were statistical differences ( P<0.05); the area under the curve (AUC) of TG, OGTT 2 h, glycated hemoglobin, and pre-pregnancy BMI were 0.605, 0.720, 0.670, and 0.616, with optimal cut off values of 4.65 mmol/L, 8.33 mmol/L, 8.06%, and 25.27 kg/m 2; TG (>4.65 mmol/L), OGTT 2 h (>8.33 mmol/L), glycated hemoglobin (>8.06%), and preconception BMI (>25.27 kg/m 2), and family history of diabetes mellitus (yes) were risk factors for abnormal glucose metabolism in pregnant women ( P<0.05); the C-index of the risk of postpartum glucose metabolism in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus predicted by the column chart model was 0.750 (95% CI 0.672 - 0.864). The model predicted that the threshold of the risk of postnatal glucose metabolism in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus was >0.07. Conclusions:TG (>4.65 mmol/L ), OGTT 2 h (>8.33 mmol/L ), glycated haemoglobin (>8.06%), pre-pregnancy BMI (>25.27 kg/m 2), and family history of diabetes (yes) are risk factors for abnormal glucose metabolism in pregnant women, and the model constructed based on the variables have good predictive power.
