Construction of a column chart prediction model for individualized prediction of frailty in elderly hypertensive patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn115455-20230419-00406
- VernacularTitle:个体化预测老年高血压患者发生衰弱的列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Shanshan LIU
1
;
Hongyan MA
;
Junfu LIU
;
Yulan CUI
;
Can ZHAO
Author Information
1. 河北省第八人民医院老年科，石家庄 050000
- Keywords:
Hypertension;
Frailty;
Risk factors;
Nomogram model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Postgraduates of Medicine
2024;47(6):481-486
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a nomogram model for predicting frailty in elderly hypertensive patients, and to evaluate the discrimination and consistency of the model.Methods:A total of 317 patients with essential hypertension who were admitted to Hebei Eighth People′s Hospital from February 2021 to June 2022 were taken, they were divided into modeling group (190 cases) and verification group (127 cases) according to the proportion of 6∶4, the patients in the modeling group were divided into the asthenic group (45 cases) and the non asthenic group (145 cases) according to whether the patients in the modeling group had asthenia. The nomograph model was constructed based on the results of Logistic analysis.Results:The age, obesity or overweight ratio, diabetes ratio and systolic blood pressure in the frail group were significantly higher than those in the non-frail group: (76.25 ± 3.64)years vs.(70.44 ± 3.82) years, 51.11%(23/45) vs. 24.83%(36/145), 46.67%(21/45) vs. 17.24%(25/145), (156.46 ± 18.64) mmHg (1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa) vs. (143.25 ± 12.38) mmHg, and the mini-nutrition assessment summary form (MNA-SF) score was significantly lower than that in the non-frail group: (11.45 ± 2.06) scores vs. (13.12 ± 1.22) scores, there were statistical differences ( P<0.05). Logistic results showed that age, body mass index, diabetes, and systolic blood pressure were the risk factors for frailty ( P<0.05). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve evaluation showed that the area under the curve (AUC) in the modeling group was 0.998, and AUC in the validation group was 0.954. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed: modeling group χ2 = 6.18, P = 0.627; validation group χ2 = 6.58, P = 0.582. Conclusions:The nomogram prediction model of frailty risk in elderly hypertensive patients has good consistency and differentiation
