ARIMA model-based usage data prediction and configuration optimization scheme for medical sutures
10.19745/j.1003-8868.2024157
- VernacularTitle:基于ARIMA模型的医用缝线使用数据预测与配置优化方案探讨
- Author:
Hong-Dan WANG
1
;
Ning-Rui ZHANG
;
Zhen-Wei DU
;
Li YANG
;
He-Hua ZHANG
Author Information
1. 陆军军医大学大坪医院医学工程科,重庆 400042
- Keywords:
medical suture;
ARIMA model;
medical consumables;
consumables management
- From:
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal
2024;45(8):73-77
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the factors affecting the use of medical sutures in medical institutions based on the autore-gressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model so as to provide basis and optimization strategy for the rational use of medical sutures in medical institutions.Methods The monthly usage amount of medical sutures in some hospital from January 2014 to November 2023 was used as the research subject.An ARIMA model was established by R language,with the data on medical suture usage amount from January 2014 to December 2018 used as the training set;the reliability of the ARIMA model was verified with the data on medical suture usage amount from January to December 2019 as the validation set.The monthly usage amount of medical sutures from January 2021 to November 2023 was predicted with the validated ARIMA model,then the predictive value was compared with the actual one to evaluate the benefits of implementing the medical suture optimization policy in January 2021.Results The established ARIMA model passed the white noise test(P＞0.05),and the difference between the predicted and actual values for the whole year of 2019 was not statistically significant(P＞0.05);after the implementation of the medical suture optimization policy,the actual usage amount of medical sutures in some hospital decreased.The actual value from January 2021 to November 2023 was much lower than the predicted value,and the difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05).Conclusion The ARIMA model-based medical suture usage data prediction and configuration optimization scheme contributes to clarifying the law of medical suture usage in some hospital,and provides references for optimization and precision managment of medical suture configuration.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2024,45(8):73-77]
