The role of multiple system scores in predicting death at 28 d in patients with cirrhosis combined with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage
10.3969/j.issn.1672-2159.2024.05.003
- VernacularTitle:多种系统评分对肝硬化合并急性上消化道出血患者28 d死亡的预测作用
- Author:
Xue-Jiao ZHANG
1
;
Xin-Xin LI
;
Lei LI
;
Ran WANG
Author Information
1. 150001 哈尔滨医科大学附属第一医院重症医学科
- Keywords:
cirrhosis;
acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding;
MELD score;
AIMS65 score;
PALBI score
- From:
Modern Interventional Diagnosis and Treatment in Gastroenterology
2024;29(5):523-527
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective to compare the application value of MELD score,AIMS65 score and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index(PALBI)in the prediction of 28 d death in patients with cirrhosis combined with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage(AUGIB)with a view to providing a reference basis for clinical screening of the most appropriate prognostic prediction score.Methods 378 patients with cirrhosis AUGIB treated in the Department of Critical Care Medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively included,and were categorized into 60(15.9％)in the death group and 318(84.1％)in the survival group based on 28 d survival.Clinical data of all cirrhotic AUGIB patients were retrospectively collected through an online medical record system,and MELD score,AIMS65 score and PALBI score were calculated.The effects of MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score on death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients were analyzed using binary logistic regression,and finally,the efficacy of these three scores in predicting death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients was assessed using ROC curves.Results Univariate analysis showed that the proportion of diabetes mellitus and hepatic encephalopathy,as well as the prothrombin time,erythrocyte distribution width,C-reactive protein,MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score were increased and albumin was decreased in the death group compared with the survival group,and the difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05).The results of multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that after correcting for confounders such as diabetes mellitus,proportion of hepatic encephalopathy,and prothrombin time,the MELD score(OR=1.621,95％CI:1.185-2.217),AIMS65 score(OR=1.914,95％CI:1.361-2.690),PALBI score(OR=1.984,95％CI:1.410-2.791)were independent risk factors for death in patients with cirrhosis AUGIB.The ROC curves showed that the AUCs of MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score for predicting death at 28 d of cirrhosis were 0.685(95％CI:0.614-0.756),0.828(95％CI:0.771-0.885),0.860(95％CI:0.808-0.913).Conclusion MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score were all independent risk factors for death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients and suggestive of prognostic risk,with AIMS65 score and PALBI score having the highest predictive value.
