A prognostic model of locally advanced oral squamous cells carcinoma constructed based on SEER data-base
10.3969/j.issn.1001-3733.2024.03.018
- VernacularTitle:基于SEER数据库的口腔鳞状细胞局部晚期癌预后模型构建
- Author:
Jiangling LIU
1
;
Guangwen LI
;
Junhui ZHANG
;
Rui WANG
;
Gang LI
;
Hui LI
Author Information
1. 646000 泸州,西南医科大学公共卫生学院
- Keywords:
SEER database;
Oral squamous cell carcinoma;
Prognostic factors;
Nomogram prediction model
- From:
Journal of Practical Stomatology
2024;40(3):412-419
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct and verify a prognosis model of nomogram for the patients with locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma(OSCC).Methods:7 118 clinical cases with locally advanced OSCC from 2010 to 2015 in SEER database were in-cluded and randomly divided into training set(TS)and validation set(VS)by a 7:3 ratio.In TS,univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk models were used to screen and determine the prognostic factors of locally advanced OSCC,and a nomogram predic-tion model was constructed to predict the cancer specific survival rate(CSS)of patients in 3 and 5 years.In TS and VS,the consis-tency index(C-index)and ROC curves were used to evaluate the differentiation of the model,the calibration curves were used to eval-uate the prediction accuracy of the model,and the decision curve analysis(DC A)method was used to evaluate the clinical applicabil-ity of the model.Results:4 984 and 2 134 cases were respectively included in TS and VS.No statistical difference of the analysis in-dexes was found between the 2 sets(P＞0.05).10 risk factors affecting the prognosis of the patients with locally advanced OSCC were identified in TS,including age,sex,race,marital status,location of onset,degree of histological differentiation,T stage,N stage,with or without operation and radiotherapy(P＜0.05).In the TS and VS,the C-index of the nomogram was 0.702 and 0.704 respectively,and the AUC of the 3-year and 5-year CSS was between 0.727 and 0.736.The calibra-tion curves showed that the 3-and 5-year CSS predicted by the nomogram model was in good agreement with the actual CSS.The DCA curves showed that the clinical benefit of the nomogram was better than that of the 7th e-dition of the AJCC TNM staging system.Conclusion:The nomogram constructed in this study can accurately predict the survival rate of OSCC patients with locally advanced tumor.
