Construction and validation of risk prediction models for unplanned readmissions within 30 days in elderly emergency patients based on different machine learning algorithms
10.3760/cma.j.cn211501-20240403-00780
- VernacularTitle:基于不同机器学习算法的急诊老年患者30 d内非计划再入院的风险预测模型构建和验证
- Author:
Pengzhen WANG
1
;
Hengya JIA
;
Jin LIU
Author Information
1. 中国人民解放军海军军医大学第一附属医院急诊科，上海 200433
- Keywords:
Aged;
Emergency service, hospital;
Unplanned readmission;
Machine learning algorithm;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2024;40(29):2285-2292
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct the risk prediction model of unplanned readmission for elderly patients in emergency department within 30 days based on different machine learning algorithms, so as to help clinical staff identify high-risk patients early and formulate preventive interventions.Methods:A total of 1 207 elderly patients admitted to the emergency department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from May 2022 to December 2023 were retrospectively selected as the study objects and were divided into the training set ( n = 842) and the test set ( n = 365) in a ratio of approximately 7∶3. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to screen the factors affecting the unplanned readmission of elderly patients within 30 days. Six prediction models, including extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) Logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Gauss Naive Bayes classification (GNB) were constructed respectively. The models were summarized, evaluated and validated, and the importance of key variables was analyzed using Shapley Additive Interpretation (SHAP). Results:Among 1 207 elderly patients, there were 842 in the training set, 430 males with a median age of 77 years, and 365 in the test set, 176 males with a median age of 78 years. Eight variable features were selected by LASSO regression. The GNB model performed the best among the 6 prediction models constructed based on XGBoost, LightGBM, AdaBoost, Logistic regression, KNN, GNB. The AUC of the test set was 0.818, and the sensitivity was 0.890, while the specificity was 0.660, and the train set and the verification set had strong fitting ability and high stability. The eight characteristics affecting the unplanned readmitted of elderly patients in the emergency department within 30 days were ranked in importance by age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, length of stay, Charson comorbidity index≥3, hypoproteinemia, abnormal vital signs≥2, stroke, anemia.Conclusions:The GNB model based on machine learning algorithms for unplanned readmission of elderly emergency patients within 30 days has good predictive performance, which helps medical staff to identify high-risk patients as early as possible before discharge, formulate targeted preventive measures, thereby reducing the short-term unplanned readmission rate of patients and improving their quality of life.
