Construction and verification of a fall fear risk prediction model for elderly patients after operation for intertrochanteric fracture of femur
10.3760/cma.j.cn211501-20230829-00407
- VernacularTitle:老年股骨转子间骨折术后患者跌倒恐惧风险预测模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Yumei ZHA
1
;
Xue SHAN
;
Manman LI
;
Qian HAN
;
Fei LI
;
Min LI
;
Na KONG
Author Information
1. 济宁医学院附属医院创伤骨科，济宁 272029
- Keywords:
Aged;
Intertrochanteric fracture;
Fear of falling;
Influencing factors;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2024;40(14):1097-1104
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the current situation of fall fear in elderly patients after operation of intertrochanteric fracture, analyze the influencing factors and build a prediction model.Methods:A prospective cohort study and convenient sampling method were used to select 303 elderly patients with intertrochanteric fracture after surgery in the Department of Orthopedics, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from January 2021 to December 2022 as the modeling group. According to the scores of fall fear when getting out of bed for the first time, they were divided into 211 cases in the fall fear group and 92 cases in the non-fall fear group. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of fall fear after operation of femoral intertrochanteric fracture in elderly patients, and a risk prediction score model was established. ROC curve was used to evaluate the differentiation of the model, calibration chart was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the model, and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification. Data of 81 elderly patients with intertrochanteric fracture treated from January to May 2023 were collected as a validation set for external verification of the model.Results:A total of 6 influencing factors were included in the prediction of fall fear risk model for elderly patients after operation of intertrochanteric fracture: gender ( OR = 3.229, 95% CI 1.672 - 6.401), number of co-existing diseases ( OR = 9.578, 95% CI 4.532 - 20.245), pain ( OR = 1.684, 95% CI 1.074 - 2.463), depression ( OR = 1.719, 95% CI 1.371 - 2.155), social support ( OR = 0.859, 95% CI 0.784 - 0.942), and ability to perform activities of daily living ( OR = 0.960, 95% CI 0.932 - 0.989) (all P<0.05). The area under ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.853, the sensitivity was 0.896, and the specificity was 0.663. The area under the externally verified ROC curve was 0.766, the sensitivity was 0.800, and the specificity was 0.645. The calibration curve was close to the reference curve in the model prediction, indicating that the model hasd a good prediction effect. Conclusions:The prediction effect of this model is good, and it can quickly predict the risk of fall fear in elderly patients after operation of intertrochanteric fracture, and provide a basis for medical personnel to provide timely intervention measures.
