Risk factors analysis and early prediction model construction for necrosis in interstitial oedematous pancreatitis
10.3969/j.issn.1002-1671.2024.11.015
- VernacularTitle:间质水肿性胰腺炎发生坏死的危险因素分析和早期预测模型的构建
- Author:
Bo CAO
1
;
Jianguo ZHU
;
Wenwen GUO
;
Fan YANG
;
Sheng SU
;
Zhiyue WANG
;
Haodong GUO
;
Qiong WANG
;
Haige LI
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学第二附属医院医学影像科,江苏 南京 210011
- Keywords:
pancreatitis;
necrosis;
nomogram;
computed tomography
- From:
Journal of Practical Radiology
2024;40(11):1818-1822
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors associated with necrosis in interstitial oedematous pancreatitis(IOP)and to develop a nomogram model for the early prediction of necrosis in IOP.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 306 patients diagnosed with IOP.Patients were stratified into necrosis and edema groups based on the presence or absence of pancreatic necrosis through follow-up CT-enhanced examinations.Logistic regression analysis was employed to identify independent predictive factors for necrosis in IOP.Subsequently,a nomogram model was developed,and its discriminative ability,accuracy,and practicality were assessed through receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results Balthazar computed tomography severity index(CTSI),gender,lactate dehydrogenase(LDH),and triglyceride(TG)were finally identified as four independent predictors for constructing the nomogram model.The area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram model was 0.800[95％confidence interval(CI)0.731-0.869].The calibration curve indicated good consistency between the predicted probabil-ity and the actual probability of necrosis in IOP(P=0.737).DCA suggested high practicality of the nomogram model within the threshold probability range of 3％to 66％and 75％to 96％.Conclusion The nomogram model based on Balthazar CTSI,gender,LDH,and TG demonstrates good efficacy in early prediction of necrosis in IOP.
