Establishment and Validation of Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Progression in Patients with Hepatitis C Cirrhosis
10.3969/j.issn.1671-7414.2024.05.002
- VernacularTitle:丙型肝炎肝硬化患者进展为肝细胞肝癌预测模型建立及验证
- Author:
Qian WU
1
;
Ying LI
;
Yanfen MA
;
Xiaoning TONG
;
Ning ZHANG
;
Xiaoxuan HE
;
Xiaoqin WANG
Author Information
1. 西安交通大学第一附属医院检验科,西安 710061
- Keywords:
hepatitis C;
cirrhosis;
hepatocellular carcinoma;
prediction model
- From:
Journal of Modern Laboratory Medicine
2024;39(5):6-11
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To screen the influencing factors of hepatitis C cirrhosis patients progressing to hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)using commonly used laboratory testing indicators,establish a prediction model using these indicators and validate them.Methods A total of 231 patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis and 179 patients with hepatitis C HCC hospitalized at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University between June 2020 and May 2023 were enrolled as the training set,and 105 patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis and 86 patients with hepatitis C HCC hospitalized between June 2023 and February 2024 were enrolled as the validation set.The routine laboratory test indexes of the study subjects in the two groups within the training set were compared,and logistic regression analysis was applied to screen the independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to construct the curve model and validate the model.Results The age,male ratio,ALT,AST,AFP,WBC,NEU,MO,PLT,MPV,PDW,Fbg,NLR and PLR levels of the HCC group were higher than those of the cirrhosis group in the training set(H=-9.07～-2.19),while the levels of INR and LMR were lower than those of the cirrhosis group(H=-4.49,-2.65),and the differences were significant(all P＜0.05).The differences in TP,eGFR,LY and AST/ALT values between the two groups of patients were not significant(H=-1.46～-0.15,all P＞0.05).Multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.048,95％CI:1.023～1.074),Male(OR=1.467,95％CI:1.413～1.765),AST(OR=1.010,95％CI:1.002～1.019),NEU(OR=1.186,95％CI:1.018～1.382)and Fbg(OR=2.245,95％CI:1.639～3.076)were independent risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma patients(all P＜0.05),and these five independent risk factors were used to construct the HCC column-line graph prediction model,with the AUC for the training set and the validation set AUC(95％Cl)were 0.813(0.771～0.854)and 0.712(0.639～0.784),respectively,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit of the model with P=0.650 for the training set and P=0.310 for the validation set.Conclusion The prediction model of HCC based on age,gender,AST,NEU and Fbg can have good predictive efficacy and clinical application value.
