Charting the course:India's health expenditure projections for 2035
10.1016/j.glohj.2024.05.001
- Author:
Sahoo Monalisa PRAGYAN
1
;
Rout Sekhar HIMANSHU
Author Information
1. Department of Analytical & Applied Economics
- Keywords:
Health expenditure;
Health spending;
Health financing;
Forecasting;
Exponential smoothing;
India
- From:
Global Health Journal
2024;8(2):58-66
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objectives:Understanding past trends and forecasting future changes in health spending is vital for planning and reducing reliance on out-of-pocket(OOP)expenses.The current study analyzed health expenditure patterns in India and forecasted future trends and patterns until 2035. Methods:Data on health expenditure in India from 2000 to 2019 was collected from the Organisation for Eco-nomic Co-operation and Development(OECD)iLibrary and National Health Accounts 2019 databases.Gross do-mestic product(GDP)data from the World Bank was also utilized.Descriptive statistics analyzed the composition and pattern,while the exponential smoothing model forecasted future health expenditures. Results:The findings revealed that expenditure made by OOP is the primary health financing source,followed by government and pre-paid private spending.The percentage of GDP allocated to total health expenditure remains stable,while the per capita health expenditure fluctuates.Variations in expenditure among states are observed,with Karnataka relying heavily on pre-paid private coverage.Future projections suggest a decline in per capita and total health expenditure as a share of GDP,with a slight increase in the government's share.Pre-paid private expenditure per capita and OOP health expenditure as a share of the total is projected to remain relatively constant but still high in absolute terms. Conclusion:The study highlights variations in health spending in India,characterized by high OOP spending,limited public coverage,and a need for investments,and reforms to improve healthcare access and equity.
