A prediction model for the risk of major upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis varices
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1671-0282.2024.05.013
- VernacularTitle:肝硬化静脉曲张患者上消化道大出血风险的预测模型研究
- Author:
Yanru FANG
1
;
Cong WANG
;
Xiaolong HU
;
Xingyi WANG
;
Lishan YANG
Author Information
1. 宁夏医科大学总医院急诊科，银川 750000
- Keywords:
Cirrhosis;
Varicose veins;
Massive hemorrhage of digestive tract;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine
2024;33(5):671-676
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To establish and validate a prediction model for the risk of major upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with varices of liver cirrhosis.Method:This study retrospectively collected the clinical data of patients with esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding who were admitted to the emergency department of Ningxia Medical University General Hospital from October 2019 to October 2022. The patients were divided into modeling group and validation group according to the ratio of 7:3 by random number table method. The observation index was whether the upper gastrointestinal bleeding occurred within 24 hours after admission. The predictors in the logistic regression model were used to construct a prediction model for the risk of major upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with varices with liver cirrhosis, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the correction curve and the decision curve were analyzed to evaluate the discriminatory ability, accuracy and clinical utility of the prediction model.Results:A total of 305 patients were included, including 215 and 90 in the modeling and validation groups, respectively, and the clinical data of the two groups were comparable. Multivariate logistic regression showed that systolic blood pressure ( OR=0.918, 95% CI: 0.860-0.980, P=0.010), MAP(ASH) score ( OR=1.993, 95% CI: 1.017-3.907, P=0.045), Child-Pugh score ( OR=1.999, 95% CI: 1.139-3.510, P=0.016) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) ( OR=1.398, 95% CI: 1.037-1.886, P=0.028) were independent influencing factors for the occurrence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis varices. The AUC of the prediction model in the modeling group was 0.936 (95% CI: 0.895-0.976), and that of the prediction model in the validation group was 0.891 (95% CI: 0.807-0.975), the prediction model had good identification, calibration, and clinical application value. Conclusions:Systolic blood pressure, MAP (ASH) score, Child-Pugh score, and prediction models constructed by end-stage liver disease models are helpful for early prediction of the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis varices in the emergency department.
