Analysis of ostomy nursing care outpatients trend based on seasonal index

VernacularTitle:基于季节指数法的造口护理门诊量趋势分析
Author: Jian? GAO ¹ ; Jufen ZHANG ; Jian LI ; Mei CHEN ; Jing DU
Author Information

1. 223300 南京医科大学附属淮安第一人民医院统计室
Keywords: Seasonal index; Ostomy nursing; Outpatient′s quantity; Trend analysis
From: Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2015;21(8):907-909
CountryChina
Language:Chinese
Abstract: Objective To explore the application of seasonal index in the ostomy nursing care outpatient′s quantity, grasp the regularity and forecast them. Methods The ostomy nursing care quantity in the outpatient of our hospital from January 2010 to May 2014 were counted, and the sequence was Seasonal decomposed, fitted and predicted. Results The correlation coefficient of the ostomy nursing care quantity in the outpatient and time series was 0. 914 ( P < 0. 01 ). It had a long-term growth trend and the seasonal characteristics. The middle seasonal index was higher than both ends of the seasonal index. The model was well fitted and the predicted outpatients in 2014 continued to increase steadily. Conclusions The seasonal index is suitable for hunting variation of ostomy nursing care outpatient′s quantity and grasping the future trend. The seasonal index applies for the ostomy care outpatients provides a reference for hospital administrators grasping the variation, and a new way to forecast the future ostomy care development.