Analysis of peripherally inserted central catheter nursing outpatient amount based on autoregressive integrated moving average model
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1674-2907.2013.23.003
- VernacularTitle:基于自回归移动平均模型的PICC护理门诊量分析
- Author:
Jian GAO
1
;
Ju-Fen ZHANG
;
Jian LI
;
Mei CHEN
;
Jing DU
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学附属淮安第一医院信息中心
- Keywords:
Peripherally inserted central catheter;
Nursing;
Outpatient amount;
ARIMA model;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing
2013;19(23):2751-2755
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) nursing outpatient amount and to study its regularity for forecast.Methods PICC nursing outpatient amount in our hospital from January 2008 to December 2012 was chosen as the study object.ARIMA model was built by stationary sequence,model identification,parameter estimate and model diagnosis to fit and forecast.Results PICC nursing outpatient amount had characteristics of long-term growth trend and seasonality.ARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had good fitness to the PICC nursing outpatient amount with autoregressive coefficient (AR1 =0.314),moving average coefficient (MA1 =0.996),seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1 =0.399) and constant term (C =0.004),all of which were statistically significant (P ＜ 0.05).Goodness of fit R2 =0.787,Box-Ljung =8.117 (P =0.919),and predicting error was white noise.It was predicted that outpatient amount in 2013 would continue to increase steadily.Conclusions ARIMA model is suitable for hunting variation of PICC nursing outpatient amount and grasping the future trend.Application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model will provide not only reference for hospital administrators to learn about variations,but also a new way to predict the future development of PICC nursing outpatient.
