Burden of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021:a comparative analysis with Japan and South Korea
10.16781/j.CN31-2187/R.20240617
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国食管癌疾病负担:与日本和韩国的对比分析
- Author:
Lin FU
1
;
Tinglu WANG
;
Yunfei JIAO
;
Luowei WANG
Author Information
1. 内蒙古科技大学包头医学院研究生院,包头 014000
- Keywords:
esophageal neoplasms;
burden of disease;
China;
incidence;
mortality;
risk factors
- From:
Academic Journal of Naval Medical University
2024;45(12):1478-1486
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the burden and trends of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021,and compare them with Japan and South Korea.Methods Based on the global burden of disease 2021 database,the incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of esophageal cancer and the corresponding age-standardized rates in China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed and descriptively studied according to different ages and genders,and compared with Japan and South Korea.The estimated annual percentage change and relative variation were used to evaluate the trend of the burden of esophageal cancer.Four risk factors,including smoking,alcohol consumption,low-vegetable diet,and chewing tobacco,were included and the proportions of esophageal cancer DALYs and death burden attributable to each risk factor were analyzed.Breakdown analysis method was used to analyze the contribution of population growth,population aging,and epidemiological changes to the incidence of esophageal cancer.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effect trends of age,period,and birth cohort on the incidence of esophageal cancer.Pearson correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between age-standardized DALYs rate and socio-demographic index(SDI).The number of incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of esophageal cancer in China over the subsequent 20 years were predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average model.Results In 2021,the number of incident cases,number of deaths,and DALYs of esophageal cancer in China were 320 805,296 443 and 6 898 666,respectively,with increases of 54.61%,40.61%,and 17.88%over 1990.In 2021,the ASIR,age-standardized mortality(ASMR),and age-standardized DALYs rate of esophageal cancer in China were 15.04/100 000,14.13/100 000,and 317.18/100 000,respectively,which were higher than those in Japan(6.22/100 000,3.81/100 000,and 84.34/100 000,respectively)and South Korea(3.52/100 000,2.29/100 000,and 50.15/100 000,respectively).The burden of esophageal cancer in males was higher than that in females in the 3 countries.In 2021,smoking and alcohol consumption were the 2 major risk factors for esophageal cancer death in China;the increase in the number of incident cases was mainly caused by population growth and population aging.In addition,the ASIR of esophageal cancer in China increased with age,peaking at 85-89 years old.From 1990 to 2021,SDI was negatively correlated with age-standardized DALYs rate of esophageal cancer in China,Japan,and South Korea.It was predicted that by 2041,the ASIR of esophageal cancer in China would continue to decrease to 9.14/100 000,but the number of incident cases would increase to 398 200.Conclusion The burden of esophageal cancer in China remains substantial.In the future,it will be crucial to strengthen the prevention and control of risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption.Additionally,efforts should be made to promote early screening,diagnosis,and treatment,particularly among high-risk populations.
