Nomogram prediction model construction and verification for pediatric acute perforation appendicitis
10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2024.22.018
- VernacularTitle:小儿急性穿孔性阑尾炎的列线图预测模型构建及验证
- Author:
Wenlong TANG
1
;
Chengliang WAN
;
Bo HAI
;
Bilin XIONG
;
Chenjun ZHENG
;
Chuanbo ZHANG
;
Chunfeng HUANG
;
Qiang BAI
Author Information
1. 昆明市儿童医院普外科,昆明 650100
- Keywords:
children;
acute appendicitis;
perforation appendicitis;
risk factors;
prediction model
- From:
Chongqing Medicine
2024;53(22):3463-3468
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the risk factors for pediatric acute perforation appendicitis,and to construct a nomogram predictive model and conduct the verification.Methods A total of 426 children patients with appendectomy in this hospital from June 30,2020 to June 30,2022 were selected as the study subjects 340 children with acute appendicitis admitted to the hospital from 30 June 2020 to 28 February 2022 were the training set and 86 children patients with appendicitis hospitalized in this hospital from March 1,2022 to June 30,2022 conducted the external validation(verification set).The univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed to analyze the independent risk factors of pediatric acute perforation appendicitis.The nomograms predictive model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibra-tion curve were used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the model.The decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the application value of the model.Results Of the 426 children,198 were perforated and 228 were not perforated.The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that elevated C-reac-tive protein(CRP),presence of stercorolith in appendiceal cavity,time of onset to visiting hospital ≥2 d and body temperature ≥37.3 ℃ were the independent risk factors for pediatric acute perforation appendicitis(P＜0.05).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated that the nomogram predictive model had good fitting(P=0.869),and the area under the curve(AUC)for the training and validation sets were 0.808 and 0.860 respectively,showing the good predictive ability of the model.The calibration curve closely approach the ideal diagonal.The model showed good discrimination,consistency and accuracy.The DC A revealed that the curve was far away from oblique and horizontal lines,and the model had good clinical practicability.Conclusion The constructed nomogram model of pediatric acute perforation appendicitis has good predictive ability and may help clinic to identify as early as possible.
